Resistance is the unifying theme of the day as it takes all forms in stories from around the world. We could consult the bible of Resistance from ARIS Studies but we will stick to the headlines. Did you know there was a breakaway province in Moldova? I didn’t but does it matter? Maybe, The Moscow Times Reports Russia Stages Drills in Moldova’s Breakaway Transnistria which puts Russian troops on 3-sides of Ukraine. From the article:
Russia has staged military drills in Transnistria, the pro-Moscow separatist region of Moldova, amid Western fears of military actions in neighboring Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry said Tuesday…
Transnistria, whose population of 500,000 is one-third ethnically Russian and one-third Moldovan, has sought to join Russia since breaking away from Moldova in 1990.
A small contingent of around 400 Russian peacekeepers is deployed in a demilitarized zone as part of a 1992 Moldovan-Transnistrian-Russian monitoring commission.
But what about resistance from within Russia? Resistance there is taking two forms: ‘No war pls’ — Gen Z is spamming Putin’s Instagram asking him not to start World War III – Task and Purpose and Thousands Of Russian Intellectuals, Activists Urge Kremlin To Avoid ‘Immoral’ War With Ukraine – Radio Free Europe. Maybe not quite a popular uprising but at least an Instagram presence. From Task and Purpose:
As tensions rise in Europe and the United States prepares to send troops to support Ukraine against Russia, Generation Z has taken on another approach — simply asking Russian President Vladimir Putin to “please consider to just not start the war.”
Admittedly, this could be our own disinformation campaign, but what about the Russian Intellectuals? From Radio Free Europe:
More than 2,000 Russian intellectuals, including prominent rights activists, have urged the Kremlin to avoid starting an “immoral, irresponsible, and criminal” war against Ukraine amid global concerns that Moscow may be on the verge of launching a wide-scale invasion of its western neighbor.
A statement from the Congress of Russian Intellectuals was made public over the weekend as Russia continued its buildup of troops — now estimated at well over 100,000 — near the Ukrainian border.
I don’t think anyone really knows if this will have an effect, if it is, someone will probably end up in jail. For a reportedly effective resistance campaign we go to, How Irish Fishermen Took on the Russian Fleet and Won – Defense One, where the ‘private sector’ demonstrated resistance to ‘Russian gray-zone aggression.’ From the article:
When Russia announced its intention to conduct a naval exercise off the coast of Ireland, Irish fishermen came up with a deterrent so surprising and so powerful that the Russian navy moved the exercise…
Murphy said the fishermen would be making a coordinated effort to head off the Russian fleet. “Our boats will be going out to that area on the first of February to go fishing,” he told Politico on Jan. 25. “When one boat needs to return to port, another will head out so there is a continuous presence on the water. If that is in proximity to where the [military] exercise is going, we are expecting that the Russian naval services abide by the anti-collision regulations.” By constantly having their boats in the exercise waters, the fishermen would—peacefully—prevent the Russians from conducting the exercise.
Ukraine is building their resistance also. The AP reports in Bomb shelters, guerrilla war: Building Ukraine’s resistance:
If Russia invades, some of Kharkiv’s 1 million plus people say they stand ready to abandon their civilian lives and wage a guerrilla campaign against one of the world’s greatest military powers. They expect many Ukrainians will do the same.
“This city has to be protected,” said Viktoria Balesina, who teaches table tennis to teenagers and dyes her cropped hair deep purple at the crown. “We need to do something, not to panic and fall on our knees. We do not want this.”
Speaking of defending the city, Irregular Learning for Irregular Warfare: Radical Urban Planning and its Applications – The Civil Affairs Association notes the importance of planned resistance:
As special operations forces (SOF), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the entire US Government (USG) continue to shift focus to irregular warfare as one of the primary means to deter Chinese and Russian aggression, it has become clear that such strategies will require intimate involvement with the human environment. This human-focused deterrence has been shown to take many forms, from support-to-resistance campaigns currently seen in the Baltics to the capability to conduct unconventional warfare and disrupt competitors’ objectives across the spectrum of conflict.[i][ii]…
But if irregular warfare experts are to truly understand the nuances of resistance and develop innovative approaches to these types of challenges, then we must broaden our sources of information to include those that some may see as unconventional. Radical planning, born from the field of urban planning, serves as an example of a field of study with notable overlap with network development and engagement aspects of IW.
If you are a practitioner of Irregular Warfare or a Military Professional, this is your must read of the day.
And with that, our focus turns to Taiwan where Foreign Affairs argues: Taiwan Can’t Wait: What America Must Do To Prevent a Successful Chinese Invasion.
In March 2021, Admiral Philip S. Davidson, then the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, informed Congress that China could invade Taiwan within the next six years. In October, Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng gave an even shorter timeline, asserting that China would be capable of a “full-scale invasion” by 2025. And in Foreign Affairs last summer, Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), warned that “there have been disturbing signals that Beijing is reconsidering its peaceful approach and contemplating armed unification.”
Other examples of resistance today are: General strike in Myanmar on 1 year anniversary of coup – DW and historical perspectives from: #Reviewing War and Resistance in the Philippines, 1942-1944 – The Strategy Bridge and 50 Years On, It is Time for the British Army to Learn from Bloody Sunday – RUSI.
If resistance is not your thing, how about Nepal’s vultures get a boost at their own restaurants – DW for something different. All of this and more in Today’s Daily Dump!
Inspired by the Cognitive Raider Initiative, The Cognitive Warrior Project has put together a daily list of diverse articles that can easily be chosen from to play a part in developing a more mentally agile warfighter that embraces the adaptation required for tomorrow’s battlefield. Our intent is to create a space where you can choose one or two articles a day (about 10 minutes) instead of mindlessly scrolling social media.
As a reminder: The Cognitive Warrior Project is a private media site, and it is not affiliated in any way with Special Operation Forces, the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. None of the U.S. Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Coast Guard, DoD or Space Force have endorsed, supported, directed, or participated in the creation of the content at this site, or in the creation of the site itself. It’s just a media site that happens to cover the U.S Military, DoD and other National Intelligence Assets.
February 1, 2022
Resistance – ARIS Studies
Much Ado About Competition: The Logic and Utility of Competitive Strategy – The Modern War Institute
Podcast: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE: THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE (RE-RELEASE) – A Better Peace
#Reviewing War and Resistance in the Philippines, 1942-1944 – The Strategy Bridge
Watch: Episode 9: Ship Me Somewhere East of Suez – A Call To Arms
50 Years On, It is Time for the British Army to Learn from Bloody Sunday – RUSI
Russia’s Growing Presence in Africa: A Geostrategic Assessment – RAND
U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia – RAND
Podcast: People At the Center: Talent, Education, and Modernization – War on the Rocks
Keeping Pace in the Gray Zone: Recommendations for the U.S. Intelligence Community – War on the Rocks
Are European Navies Ready for High-Intensity Warfare? – War on the Rocks
NEOCONIC RUSSOPHOBIA – Small Wars Journal
The End of Illusions? Lessons from Afghanistan – Small Wars Journal
The Dominance of Prevention in Israeli Strategic Culture – Small Wars Journal
SWJ Book Review: Exercise of Power by Robert M. Gates – Small Wars Journal
Irregular Learning for Irregular Warfare: Radical Urban Planning and its Applications – The Civil Affairs Association
Book Review: Culture Hacks: Deciphering Differences in American, Chinese, and Japanese Thinking – The Civil Affairs Association
Crisis Crossroads: Ukraine – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Strategic Triage vs. Strategic Overstretch – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Running Faster and Tripping China – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Keeping the humanitarian sector in Africa safe from digital threats – Institute for Security Studies
Taiwan Can’t Wait: What America Must Do To Prevent a Successful Chinese Invasion – Foreign Affairs
Haiti’s Fight for Democracy: Why the Country Must Rebuild Before It Votes – Foreign Affairs
Ukraine announces plan to boost army as foreign leaders rally – Reuters
Ukraine to get bigger army but it doesn’t mean war imminent- president – Reuters
North Korea documentary shows limping Kim as he tackles ‘worst-ever hardships’ – Reuters
Bomb shelters, guerrilla war: Building Ukraine’s resistance – AP
Russia denies responding to US proposal on Ukraine crisis – AP
Ukraine-Russia crisis: What to know about rising fear of war – AP
Taliban raised on war bring a heavy hand to security role – AP
US military fired missiles during Yemen Houthi attack on UAE – AP
A Uyghur gets death sentence, as China bans once OK’d books – AP
Watch: Ukraine’s Weekend Warriors – DW/YouTube
Hungary’s Viktor Orban eyes favors from Vladimir Putin amid Ukraine crisis – DW
Nepal’s vultures get a boost at their own restaurants – DW
General strike in Myanmar on 1 year anniversary of coup – DW
Next phase of China-Iran ties depends on nuclear talks – Al Monitor
Biden eyes Qatar as major non-NATO ally – Al Monitor
Sadr committed to forming Iraq’s first majority government – Al Monitor
Top US, Russia diplomats to hold talks on Ukraine: Live news – Al Jazeera
Mali and France, a timeline of mounting tensions – Al Jazeera
Why did the Houthis attack the UAE? Everything you need to know – Al Jazeera
Burkina Faso restores constitution, names coup leader president – Al Jazeera
China selling armed drones to stealthy strategic effect – Asia Times
US out to neutralize Russia’s energy hold on Europe – Asia Times
Germany faces new realities in Russia-Ukraine crisis – Asia Times
US battling to swing Thailand away from China – Asia Times
Russia Stages Drills in Moldova’s Breakaway Transnistria – The Moscow Times
Russia Boosts Gas Supplies Through Ukraine as Tensions Mount – The Moscow Times
Opinion: What Would a War With Ukraine Mean for Ordinary Russians? – The Moscow Times
With Low-Tech, Trench Warfare, Ukraine’s Army Isn’t NATO Caliber – The New York Times
As the U.S. Pulls Back From the Mideast, China Leans In – The New York Times
For Some of Ukraine’s Neighbors, ‘Defend Europe’ Has Another Meaning – The New York Times
OSCE Envoy: Russian Proposals Are Slippery Slope To A World Where ‘Might Makes Right’ – Radio Free Europe
Podcast: The View From Kyiv – The Week Ahead in Russia
Thousands Of Russian Intellectuals, Activists Urge Kremlin To Avoid ‘Immoral’ War With Ukraine – Radio Free Europe
Russian Naval Assault Could Mean ‘Total Disaster’ For Ukraine’s Economy – Radio Free Europe
A Little Mud Won’t Stop Putin – Foreign Policy
‘No war pls’ — Gen Z is spamming Putin’s Instagram asking him not to start World War III – Task and Purpose
How big is Russia’s military build-up around Ukraine? – The Economist
The United States must put the Navy first – Defense News
A Maritime Strategy to Deal with China – U.S. Naval Institute
War and Resistance in the Philippines, 1942-1944 – Real Clear Defense
How Irish Fishermen Took on the Russian Fleet and Won – Defense One
Senate Hearing on Sudan: Is the US Ready for a Needed Reset? – Just Security
The Jeep Is Dead, Long Live the HMMWV – Popular Mechanics
Here Come the Underdogs of the Robot Olympics – Wired
Podcast: S2E10 Lt. Col. Onnie Retkofsky – Resilience through spirit! – SOFCAST
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