{"id":1096,"date":"2022-01-11T10:34:03","date_gmt":"2022-01-11T15:34:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/?p=1096"},"modified":"2022-01-11T11:28:10","modified_gmt":"2022-01-11T16:28:10","slug":"daily-dump-russia-and-ukraine-russia-and-nato-russia-and-kazakhstan-and-more-january-10-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/?p=1096","title":{"rendered":"Daily Dump: Russia and Ukraine, Russia and NATO, Russia and Kazakhstan and More\u2013 January 10, 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Since this post is hitting the internet a day later than I had anticipated, we get a new introduction\u2026 the other one wasn’t that good anyway. I tried to be cute with a headline and I don’t think it would have aged well.<\/p>\n

Lot\u2019s of news centered around Russia yesterday. Whether it is Russia and NATO, the simmering conflict in Ukraine or recent uprising in Kazakhstan, news is coming from all directions. But before we dive into the headlines, I think we should start with looking at the conflict in the region from a Russian perspective by revisiting the War on the Rocks article, What Is Russia\u2019s Logic for the Current Crisis?<\/a><\/em>, from last week. If you didn\u2019t read the article, you definitely should. It begins as follows:<\/p>\n

\u201cU.S.-Russian relations may no longer be central to world politics, the way they used to be during the Cold War, but when it comes to strategic stability and security in Europe and Eurasia, there is still no more important bilateral relationship in the world. President Vladimir Putin\u2019s demands for \u201csecurity guarantees\u201d from the United States and NATO have caught many, including in Moscow, by surprise. The urgency with which Moscow seeks to have its proposals addressed \u2014 presented not as a \u201cmenu of options\u201d to choose from but a \u201cpackage\u201d \u2014 has been even more stunning.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Russia is seeking security guarantees in Ukraine and to a lesser extent Georgia (and now Kazakhstan). That should not be a surprise to anyone but I think understates the importance of Ukraine to Russia. For that we will turn to this Wavell Room Piece: NATO, Diplomacy, and the Ukraine Crisis<\/a>, <\/em>which references Zbigniew Brzezinski<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2026Russia without Ukraine ceases to be an empire<\/a>. The problem is that in highlighting Ukraine\u2019s strategic importance Brzezinski also identified the stakes. Ukraine was the one thing Russia was never going to let go.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

And then back to the War on the Rocks article<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cSince the end of the 1990s, NATO has seen five waves of enlargement eastward. Each wave triggered noise from Moscow, but it was the possibility of Ukraine and Georgia\u2019s accession to NATO that Russia feared most and set as the red line.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

From the Russian perspective, the idea that NATO is a \u2018defensive<\/a>\u2019 alliance sort of rings hollow. So, where do we currently stand? According to the PBS News Hour – U.S. and NATO reject Russian demand that alliance not admit new members<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cThe United States and NATO on Friday roundly rejected Russian demands that the alliance not admit new members amid growing concerns that Russia may invade Ukraine, which aspires to join the alliance.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

I get not making such a statement publicly so early in a negotiation. But if Ukraine joining NATO truly means war with Russia; is that a price they are willing to pay? Or, is neutrality for Ukraine even a realistic option anymore? This AP article is a decent EXPLAINER: Main issues at Russia-US security talks<\/a><\/em>, but for the more likely prospects for Ukraine and the purposes of this discussion, we will go back to the very good Wavell Room piece<\/a> and Brzezinski (which you really should read):<\/p>\n

\u201cFor Ukraine, he instead proposed Finlandization<\/a> \u2013 as did Henry Kissinger<\/a>. Neither was parroting Kremlin talking points. They were recognizing the limitations of the situation and proffering the best outcome they could envision for Kyiv.<\/em><\/p>\n

That said, Finland during the Cold War is often viewed through rose-colored glasses. \u201cNeutrality\u201d was a fig leaf for vassalage to Moscow<\/a>. Some Ukrainians understandably recoil at the model. \u201cFinlandization\u201d was not that different than what ousted President Viktor Yanukovych pursued in 2013 when he declared a policy of non-alignment and abrogated Ukraine\u2019s association agreement<\/a> with the European Union.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

For a solution to the Ukraine problem, they propose The Austrian model<\/a> which you can read more about at The National Interest but here is the relevant section that pertains to our conversation:<\/p>\n

 \u2026the fate of Austria, which eventually concluded with Austria\u2019s declaration of \u201cperpetual neutrality,\u201d the departure of all Soviet and Allied military forces from Austrian soil in 1955, and the ratification of the Austrian Independence Treaty in the same year. Likewise, neutrality also may be Ukraine\u2019s most viable option. In fact, the now discredited Viktor Yanukovich stated in his inauguration 2010 \u201cchallenges that the international community face mean we have to join together in a larger format. We are ready to participate in this process as a European, non-aligned state.\u201d[1] Indeed in the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine, passed on July 1, <\/em>1990, it says that Ukraine has the \u201cintention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs and adheres to three nuclear free principles\u2026\u201d[2] To this date, however, no further steps have been taken towards Ukrainian neutrality.<\/em><\/p>\n

As for what will actually happen in regards to Ukraine and NATO? We will have to wait and see what comes of the negotiations but I don\u2019t think anything really concrete will come of them on this first round. Besides, according to The Economist, Russia\u2019s menacing of Ukraine is unlikely to induce NATO to retreat<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

On to Kazakhstan for a quick update. Over the weekend the AP reported Nearly 8,000 detained in Kazakhstan amid unrest<\/a><\/em> and according to DW Kazakhstan: Putin says Russia will not allow revolutions<\/a>. <\/em>Whether this is disinformation or reality doesn\u2019t really matter for the central players, Putin and the President of Kazakhstan claim (from<\/a> DW):<\/p>\n

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev claims Islamists had sought to launch a coup under the guise of protest. The country had been targeted by “international terrorism,” according to Vladimir Putin\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

“The measures taken by the CSTO made it clear that we would not let anyone destabilize the situation at our home and implement so-called color revolution scenarios,” Putin said, referring to several revolutions in post-Soviet countries over the past few decades.<\/em><\/p>\n

There is so much more in yesterday\u2019s headlines about the situation in Kazakhstan and honestly, I haven\u2019t even checked today\u2019s! We are going to leave you with one last article that you may have missed and for that we go to The Moscow Times, Kazakhstan Detains Ex-Security Chief on Suspicion of Treason<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

The former head of Kazakhstan’s domestic security agency has been detained on suspicion of treason, the agency said Saturday, after he was fired amid unprecedented unrest.<\/em><\/p>\n

The detention of Karim Masimov, a former prime minister and longtime ally of Kazakhstan’s ex-leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, was the first major move against a top official in the biggest crisis the ex-Soviet Central Asian republic has faced in years.<\/em><\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t look good for Karim Masimov. I think that this will be an interesting story to follow over the coming days. If you are not into the whole Russia thing, there are still plenty of other articles that should be able to grab your attention in Today\u2019s (which is actually yesterday\u2019s) Daily Dump!<\/p>\n

Inspired by the Cognitive Raider Initiative, The Cognitive Warrior Project has put together a daily list of diverse articles that can easily be chosen from to play a part in developing a more mentally agile warfighter that embraces the adaptation required for tomorrow\u2019s battlefield. Our intent is to create a space where you can choose one or two articles a day (about 10 minutes) instead of mindlessly scrolling social media.<\/p>\n

As a reminder: The Cognitive Warrior Project is a private media site, and it is not affiliated in any way with Special Operation Forces, the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. None of the U.S. Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Coast Guard, DoD or Space Force have endorsed, supported, directed, or participated in the creation of the content at this site, or in the creation of the site itself. It\u2019s just a media site that happens to cover the U.S Military, DoD and other National Intelligence Assets.<\/em><\/p>\n

January 10, 2022<\/p>\n

TEACHING TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION, AND GREAT POWER COMPETITION AT STANFORD, PART 5: LESSONS LEARNED<\/a> \u2013 Modern War Institute<\/p>\n

In the Firing Line: Finland, Sweden, NATO and European Security<\/a> \u2013 RUSI<\/p>\n

Watch: Cyber Risks in Nuclear Escalation Scenarios<\/a> \u2013 NSI<\/p>\n

Watch: Cognitive Defense Against Massive Information Threats\u2014Our Near Futures<\/a> \u2013 NSI<\/p>\n

U.S. and NATO reject Russian demand that alliance not admit new members<\/a> \u2013 PBS News Hour<\/p>\n

What Prevention and Treatment of Substance Dependence Can Tell Us About Addressing Violent Extremism<\/a> \u2013 RAND<\/p>\n

Podcast: Ep. 58 \u2014 The Year in Review<\/a> \u2013 Generation Jihad<\/p>\n

Podcast: THE TEXTURE OF WAR IN AFGHANISTAN\u2019S PECH VALLEY: PART 1<\/a> \u2013 Horns of Dilemma<\/p>\n

Podcast: A HEAVY PRICE TO PAY?<\/a> \u2013 Net Assessment<\/p>\n

SPIKING THE PROBLEM: DEVELOPING A RESILIENT POSTURE IN THE INDO-PACIFIC WITH PASSIVE DEFENSES<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

WINGED LUDDITES: AVIATORS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARRIER AVIATION<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

1\/10\/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary<\/a> \u2013 Small Wars Journal<\/p>\n

Online Event: CSIS Australia Chair Launch Event<\/a> \u2013 Center for Strategic and International Studies<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia\u2019s Hydrogen Industrial Strategy<\/a> \u2013 Center for Strategic and International Studies<\/p>\n

As the AU turns 20, it must speak with one voice<\/a> \u2013 Institute for Security Studies<\/p>\n

Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing: To Deter a Ukraine Invasion, Washington\u2019s Threats Need to Be Tougher<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Affairs<\/p>\n

Democracy Talk Is Cheap: Concrete Action Is the Only Way Biden Can Turn Back the Illiberal Tide<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Affairs<\/p>\n

Putin claims victory in defending Kazakhstan from revolt<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

U.S. and Russian negotiators face off in Geneva over Ukraine<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

Iran calls for release of Afghan funds during Taliban envoy’s visit<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

EXPLAINER: Main issues at Russia-US security talks<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

Nearly 8,000 detained in Kazakhstan amid unrest<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

Opinion: Putin gets his way as West scrambles<\/a> \u2013 DW<\/p>\n

Kazakhstan: Putin says Russia will not allow revolutions<\/a> \u2013 DW<\/p>\n

New year brings no hope of resolution to Yemen conflict<\/a> \u2013 Al Monitor<\/p>\n

Kazakhstan adds to Putin\u2019s regional headaches<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

US, Japan to crank up cooperation vis-a-vis China<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

China\u2019s nuke carrier coup de grace in Taiwan Strait<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

Belt & Road encircles Latin America and the Caribbean<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

Russia following Ukraine playbook in Kazakhstan<\/a> \u2013 Asia times<\/p>\n

Live Updates: Russia Tells U.S. It Has No Plans to Invade Ukraine<\/a> \u2013 The New York Times<\/p>\n

Russian Troops Will Stay to Finish Job in Kazakhstan, Putin Says<\/a> \u2013 The New York Times<\/p>\n

Russia Warns That U.S. Doesn\u2019t Understand Its Goals on Ukraine<\/a> \u2013 The New York Times<\/p>\n

‘Gross Misuse’: UN Helmets Worn By Kazakh Troops During Crackdown<\/a> \u2013 Radio Free Europe<\/p>\n

Iran Says Only 12 Asiatic Cheetahs Left In Country<\/a> \u2013 Radio Free Europe<\/p>\n

Ruling military regime in Mali condemns and retaliates against ECOWAS sanctions<\/a> \u2013 Africa News<\/p>\n

Ethiopia: footage of drone deadly strike emerges<\/a> \u2013 Africa News<\/p>\n

America\u2019s Asia Strategy Has Reached a Dead End<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

3 Big Things to Know About the Russian-Led Alliance Intervening in Kazakhstan<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

The Human Rights vs. National Security Dilemma Is a Fallacy<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s menacing of Ukraine is unlikely to induce NATO to retreat<\/a> \u2013 The Economist<\/p>\n

China\u2019s Tech Crackdown: A Year-in-Review<\/a> \u2013 Lawfare<\/p>\n

NATO, Diplomacy, and the Ukraine Crisis<\/a> \u2013 Wavell Room<\/p>\n

Kazakhstan Detains Ex-Security Chief on Suspicion of Treason<\/a> \u2013 The Moscow Times<\/p>\n

As Putin Aims to Re-Divide Europe, Lessons from the Past Can Guide a Response<\/a> \u2013 Just Security<\/p>\n

What to Make of Kazakhstan\u2019s Seemingly Sudden Unrest<\/a> \u2013 The United States Institute of Peace<\/p>\n

CES 2022 Highlights: 83 Glimpses of the Future From Tech\u2019s Big Show<\/a> \u2013 Wired<\/p>\n

All hail the Ariane 5 rocket, which doubled the Webb telescope\u2019s lifetime<\/a> \u2013 Ars Technica<\/p>\n

Did we miss anything? Drop a comment or a link to an article to further the discussion. And don\u2019t forget to subscribe! It\u2019s free and our articles can be emailed directly to you so you don\u2019t miss a thing!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since this post is hitting the internet a day later than I had anticipated, we get a new introduction\u2026 the other one wasn’t that good anyway. I tried to be cute with a headline and I don’t think it would have aged well. Lot\u2019s of news centered around Russia yesterday. Whether it is Russia and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1097,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"bgseo_title":"","bgseo_description":"","bgseo_robots_index":"index","bgseo_robots_follow":"follow","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bullets"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Russian-Bear.jpg","post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1096","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1096"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1096\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1099,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1096\/revisions\/1099"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1097"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}