{"id":1112,"date":"2022-01-19T15:57:49","date_gmt":"2022-01-19T20:57:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/?p=1112"},"modified":"2022-01-19T15:57:49","modified_gmt":"2022-01-19T20:57:49","slug":"daily-dump-afghanistan-pakistan-border-creates-an-opportunity-the-kazakhstan-russia-china-nexus-nukes-and-more-january-19-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/?p=1112","title":{"rendered":"Daily Dump: Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Creates an Opportunity, The Kazakhstan \u2013 Russia \u2013 China Nexus, Nukes and More \u2013 January 19, 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Today, we go all over the place in our featured articles with a couple throwbacks to links from several days ago on stories that we may have missed or didn\u2019t have an opportunity to dive further into.<\/p>\n

To start things off, we will go to Afghanistan and the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Dispute Heats Up<\/em><\/a> from United States Institute of Peace where the fight over a wall could signal underlying tensions.<\/p>\n

In at least two incidents in late December and early January, Afghan Taliban soldiers<\/em> intervened to block an ongoing Pakistani project to erect fencing<\/em><\/a> along the shared border between Afghanistan and Pakistan \u2014 the demarcation of which prior Afghan governments have never accepted. Despite attempts to resolve the issue diplomatically, and the Taliban\u2019s dependence on Pakistan as a bridge to the international community, both sides remain at odds over the fence. USIP\u2019s Richard Olson, Asfandyar Mir and Andrew Watkins assess the implications of this border dispute for Afghanistan and Pakistan\u2019s bilateral relationship and the region at large. <\/em><\/p>\n

In what appears to be a clash between the traditional right of free movement and arbitrary lines drawn on a map, the Taliban and Pakistan dispute has roots going back to the 1940\u2019s. The fencing project is central to the Pakistani plans for security there. More from the USIP article:<\/p>\n

Pakistani policy makers appear to be realizing that the Taliban will walk the talk of jihad and chew the gum of border nationalism at the same time. Will this compel a rethink in Pakistan\u2019s policy toward the Taliban? Not immediately. But if the Taliban ramp up their challenge against the border, Pakistan might seek to influence the Taliban\u2019s internal politics more aggressively<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, and seemingly unrelated to the border dispute the Asia Times reports, US senses opportunity in fraying Taliban-Pakistan ties<\/em><\/a> and is looking to deepen the fissures between the countries by using their financial leverage. Here are the relevant sections:<\/p>\n

Simply put, the new thinking in Washington is that by easing the pressure on the Taliban in a calibrated way, a dependency will develop on the part of the latter on American goodwill, which in turn would slow down or arrest Kabul\u2019s pivot to Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and others. <\/em><\/p>\n

Basically, the tactic involves giving concessions to the Taliban in dollops in such a way that its dependency on Russia, China and other regional states (especially Iran and Pakistan) would diminish.<\/em><\/p>\n

In effect, Washington is exploiting the reservations on the part of the neighboring states regarding the Taliban government by providing it limited aid in such a way that makes it even more difficult for them to decide on moving forward with the interim government in Kabul. <\/em><\/p>\n

Switching gears to Kazakhstan, Radio Free Europe is reporting that the Russia-Led Military Alliance Completes Withdrawal From Kazakhstan<\/em><\/a>.<\/em> Mission accomplished, I guess? Interestingly, there are two other Radio Free Europe articles that are worth your attention. The first, Crisis In Kazakhstan Pushes China, Russia Closer Together<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>reports that stability at any cost is the<\/em> most important aspect of the region. They state:<\/p>\n

While Moscow was seen as the main military provider in the region, Beijing’s slow venture into Central Asian security in recent years with unofficial outposts and increased training — combined with rising influence through its multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure project — created a cocktail for increased friction and potential rivalry.<\/em><\/p>\n

But analysts say China’s and Russia’s handling of violent unrest in their mutual neighbor, Kazakhstan, has pushed the two countries even closer together. It has also highlighted the lengths the two powers are willing to accommodate each other during a fast-moving and high-stakes crisis.<\/em><\/p>\n

“The crisis in Kazakhstan proved that the relationship between China and Russia in Central Asia is very stable,” Jakub Jakobowski, senior fellow at the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, told RFE\/RL. “There are many difficult issues and potential problems for them to navigate and the fact that they have managed to do so demonstrates how durable ties between Beijing and Moscow are becoming.”<\/em><\/p>\n

There is so much more in the article detailing common ground of the wider Russia-China relationship. And if that has piqued your interest on the region, you should definitely check out China In Eurasia Briefing: Beijing, Moscow, And A New Central Asia<\/em><\/a> \u2013 Radio Free Europe. They detail why this relationship matters this way:<\/p>\n

While China and Russia have been growing closer in recent years, Central Asia was seen as a region of competition between Beijing and Moscow. But their reaction to events in Kazakhstan shows they’re learning to work together and respect each other’s interests, even when they might conflict.<\/em><\/p>\n

This article details the importance of Kazakhstan to China and goes further discussing a Serbian connection, Middle East diplomacy and the view through China\u2019s big lens. If you are a China watcher or you only have time to read one article today, this<\/a> should be it.<\/p>\n

For our final section of the day, we will talk nukes because China Denies ‘Remarkable’ Expansion of its Nuclear Arsenal, Which Is Laughable<\/em><\/a> \u2013 Popular Mechanics.<\/p>\n

A senior Chinese official denied reports earlier this month that China is engaged in what he calls a “remarkable”<\/a> expansion of the country’s nuclear weapons arsenal\u2014but stopped short of denying the country was building more nukes period. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Defense claims that China will effectively triple its inventory of nuclear warheads by 2030\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Last summer, the Pentagon’s annual report on China<\/a> warned that the country was aiming to build a total of 700 deployable thermonuclear warheads by 2027, and 1,000 warheads by 2030. The report states that China’s pace of warhead construction is so rapid that its previous estimate from 2020 had become obsolete in just one year.<\/em><\/p>\n

Yikes. For a reminder, 75 Years On, the Doomsday Clock Keeps Ticking<\/a>,<\/em> \u2013 Wired.<\/p>\n

For something different, and because I am always a sucker for a good map, check out Mapping a First Look at Tonga\u2019s: Devastation After the Volcano Eruption<\/a><\/em> \u2013 The New York Times. All of this and so much more in Today\u2019s Daily Dump!<\/p>\n

Inspired by the Cognitive Raider Initiative, The Cognitive Warrior Project has put together a daily list of diverse articles that can easily be chosen from to play a part in developing a more mentally agile warfighter that embraces the adaptation required for tomorrow\u2019s battlefield. Our intent is to create a space where you can choose one or two articles a day (about 10 minutes) instead of mindlessly scrolling social media.<\/p>\n

As a reminder: The Cognitive Warrior Project is a private media site, and it is not affiliated in any way with Special Operation Forces, the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. None of the U.S. Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Coast Guard, DoD or Space Force have endorsed, supported, directed, or participated in the creation of the content at this site, or in the creation of the site itself. It\u2019s just a media site that happens to cover the U.S Military, DoD and other National Intelligence Assets.<\/em><\/p>\n

January 19, 2022<\/p>\n

Artificial Intelligence, Real Risks: Understanding\u2014and Mitigating\u2014Vulnerabilities in the Military Use of AI<\/a> \u2013 Modern War Institute<\/p>\n

Podcast: YEAH, LET\u2019S LET WOMEN IN: HER COLD WAR<\/a> \u2013 A Better Peace<\/p>\n

#Reviewing First Platoon<\/a> \u2013 The Strategy Bridge<\/p>\n

Reviewing: Clear, Hold, and Destroy: Pacification in Ph\u00fa Y\u00ean and the American War in Vietnam<\/a> \u2013 The Strategy Bridge<\/p>\n

Illegal Wildlife Trade and Illicit Finance in the UK<\/a> \u2013 RUSI<\/p>\n

The Pandemic Has Done Little to Check China\u2019s Geostrategic Ambitions<\/a> \u2013 RUSI<\/p>\n

Lessons from the Ajax Programme<\/a> \u2013 RUSI<\/p>\n

Watch: Never Mind, We\u2019ll Do It Ourselves: How a Team of Renegades Broke Rules, Shattered Barriers, and Launched the Drone Warfare Revolution<\/a> \u2013 NSI<\/p>\n

Competition and Governance in African Security Sectors: Integrating U.S. Strategic Objectives<\/a> \u2013 RAND<\/p>\n

Biden’s Rhetoric on Ukraine Has Been Quite Moderate. Here’s What That Means<\/a> \u2013 RAND<\/p>\n

What Happened to Military Recruiting and Retention of Enlisted Personnel in 2020 During the COVID-19 Pandemic?<\/a> \u2013 RAND<\/p>\n

Turn On the Light, Extinguish the Fire: Israel\u2019s New Way of War<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

To Support Democracy in Myanmar, Engage with Ethnic Armed Organizations<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

1\/18\/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary<\/a> \u2013 Small Wars Journal<\/p>\n

Online Event: The Transatlantic Relationship: A View from Spain<\/a> \u2013 Center for Strategic and International Studies<\/p>\n

The Biden Boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics<\/a> \u2013 Center for Strategic and International Studies<\/p>\n

Macron\u2019s Flawed Vision for Europe<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Affairs<\/p>\n

Privacy Is Power: How Tech Policy Can Bolster Democracy<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Affairs<\/p>\n

U.S. gave $200 mln defense aid to Ukraine in December – official<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

Russian troops in Belarus pose “direct threat to Lithuania” – defence minister<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

U.S. lawmakers call for U.N. Uyghur rights report before China’s Olympics<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

US, allies pledge unity on Russia; to do what isn\u2019t as clear<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

EXPLAINER: Why Tonga eruption was so big and what\u2019s next<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

EXPLAINER: Are Turkey\u2019s efforts to fix the economy working?<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

Ukraine-Russia crisis: Blinken urges Putin to choose ‘peaceful path’<\/a> \u2013 DW<\/p>\n

Russia sanctions: How to punish Moscow over Ukraine threat?<\/a> \u2013 DW<\/p>\n

Syrian government steps up attack against Islamist enclave<\/a> \u2013 Al Monitor<\/p>\n

Syrian jihadist leader in Western wear, opens road in Idlib<\/a> \u2013 Al Monitor<\/p>\n

Crimean, Syrian ports sign cooperation agreements<\/a> \u2013 Al Monitor<\/p>\n

Russia can attack Ukraine at \u2018short notice\u2019, US warns: Live news<\/a> \u2013 Al Jazeera<\/p>\n

Israeli forces demolish Palestinian home in Sheikh Jarrah<\/a> \u2013 Al Jazeera<\/p>\n

Eye on China, Indonesia launches naval spending spree<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

Abe\u2019s Indo-Pacific vision is finally coming to life<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

\u2018We Are Taiwanese\u2019: China\u2019s Growing Menace Hardens Island\u2019s Identity<\/a> \u2013 The New York Times<\/p>\n

Sudan\u2019s Security Forces Kill Protesters as U.S. Diplomats\u2019 Visit Nears<\/a> \u2013 The New York Times<\/p>\n

Mapping a First Look at Tonga\u2019s: Devastation After the Volcano Eruption<\/a> \u2013 The New York Times<\/p>\n

China In Eurasia Briefing: Beijing, Moscow, And A New Central Asia<\/a> \u2013 Radio Free Europe<\/p>\n

Russia-Led Military Alliance Completes Withdrawal From Kazakhstan<\/a> \u2013 Radio Free Europe<\/p>\n

Erdogan Says Serbia’s Backing Crucial For Bosnia’s Territorial Integrity<\/a>  \u2013 Radio Free Europe<\/p>\n

When Putin Loved NATO<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

Defining the Biden Doctrine<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

Martin Luther King Jr.\u2019s Forgotten Foreign-Policy Vision<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

The Arab world is re-embracing its Jews<\/a> \u2013 The Economist<\/p>\n

Why Did Russia Escalate Its Gray Zone Conflict in Ukraine?<\/a> \u2013 Lawfare<\/p>\n

#ChoosetoChallenge2022 Update<\/a> \u2013 Wavell Room<\/p>\n

As the Dust Settles on Kazakhstan\u2019s Unrest, Reports of Torture and Violence Surface<\/a> \u2013 The Moscow Times<\/p>\n

How Alexei Navalny\u2019s Jailing Changed Russia<\/a> \u2013 The Moscow Times<\/p>\n

C-17 Loads Of Anti-Tank Missiles Arrive In Ukraine Courtesy Of The United Kingdom<\/a> \u2013 The Drive<\/p>\n

China Denies ‘Remarkable’ Expansion of its Nuclear Arsenal, Which Is Laughable<\/a> \u2013 Popular Mechanics<\/p>\n

Watch a Marine Zoom From One Boat to Another … With a Jetpack<\/a> \u2013 Popular Mechanics<\/p>\n

75 Years On, the Doomsday Clock Keeps Ticking<\/a> \u2013 Wired<\/p>\n

Did we miss anything? Drop a comment or a link to an article to further the discussion. And don\u2019t forget to subscribe! It\u2019s free and our articles can be emailed directly to you so you don\u2019t miss a thing!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today, we go all over the place in our featured articles with a couple throwbacks to links from several days ago on stories that we may have missed or didn\u2019t have an opportunity to dive further into. To start things off, we will go to Afghanistan and the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Dispute Heats Up from United […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1113,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"bgseo_title":"","bgseo_description":"","bgseo_robots_index":"index","bgseo_robots_follow":"follow","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bullets"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Doomsday.jpg","post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1112"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1112\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1115,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1112\/revisions\/1115"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}