{"id":1171,"date":"2022-01-31T14:51:51","date_gmt":"2022-01-31T19:51:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/?p=1171"},"modified":"2022-01-31T14:51:51","modified_gmt":"2022-01-31T19:51:51","slug":"daily-dump-spheres-of-influence-taiwan-and-the-greater-pacific-war-and-disease-the-betrayal-and-more-january-21-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/?p=1171","title":{"rendered":"Daily Dump: Spheres of Influence, Taiwan and the Greater Pacific, War and Disease, The Betrayal and More: January 21, 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ukraine and Taiwan dominate the headlines today and their stories, rightly or wrongly, are being linked together but I agree with the basic premise of the War on the Rocks: Taiwan Is Not Ukraine: Stop Linking Their Fates Together<\/a>. <\/em><\/p>\n

In the current geopolitical moment, the differences between Ukraine and Taiwan are far more important than their similarities \u2014 and linking together the security threats that the two countries face can make both situations worse.<\/em><\/p>\n

The article is very good and definitely worth your time, but to hammer home the difference between the two:<\/p>\n

To see why this comparison obscures more than it clarifies, first consider the history of U.S. involvement with each country. American security support for Ukraine is recent<\/a>, limited<\/a>, and subsumed under broader concerns<\/a> about Russia\u2019s challenge to the post-Cold War European security order.<\/em><\/p>\n

For more on Taiwan and Asia in general here are two other excellent articles if that is where you to go:<\/p>\n

Being a Better Partner in the Pacific<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/em><\/p>\n

Can America Rebuild Its Power in Asia?<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/p>\n

Today however, we are going back to Ukraine to focus on the conflict there where the debate has been drawn into two clear camps arguing for and against a sphere of influence for Russia. Because this is generally the minority position in the headlines, we will first go to: Two Cheers for Spheres of Influence<\/a> \u2013 Real Clear Defense <\/em>where they let the great geopolitical theorist Halford Mackinder do the heavy lifting:<\/p>\n

The concept of “spheres of influence” is, in reality, as old as diplomacy itself. It is a concept based on geography, history, and the balance of power at any given time. It is very much an aspect of the “realist” world view, and perhaps its greatest practitioner was Prussia’s (later Germany’s) 19th century Chancellor Otto von Bismarck.<\/em><\/p>\n

The article<\/a> continues with a more contemporary case and Winston Churchill:<\/p>\n

In an effort to promote stability and peace based on the balance of power, Churchill famously proposed to Stalin what became known as the “percentages deal.” On October 9, 1944, Churchill proposed the following to Stalin: “Let us settle about our affairs in the Balkans. Your armies are in Rumania and Bulgaria. We have interests, missions, and agents there. Don’t let us get at cross purposes in small ways. So far as Britain and Russia are concerned, how would it do for you to have ninety percent predominance in Rumania, for us to have ninety percent of the say in Greece, and go fifty-fifty about Yugoslavia?”<\/em><\/p>\n

And then<\/a>, George Kannan:<\/p>\n

“Interventions on moral principle can be formally defensible,” Kennan wrote in “Morality and Foreign Policy” (Foreign Affairs, Winter 1985-86), “only if the practices against which they are directed are seriously injurious to our interests, rather than our sensibilities.” And he explained further that “[t]he mere fact that a country acquires the trappings of self-government does not automatically mean that the interests of the United States are thereby furthered.”<\/em><\/p>\n

For the counter argument we will go to Foreign Affairs: Keep NATO\u2019s Door Open to Ukraine: Washington Shouldn\u2019t Grant Putin the Sphere of Influence He Wants<\/a> <\/em>which argues the exact opposite:<\/p>\n

One of the few positive outcomes of recent exchanges among U.S., European, and Russian diplomats has been the firm rejection by the Biden administration and its allies of Kremlin demands that NATO \u201cnever, never, ever\u201d admit Ukraine as a member. Acquiescing to such a demand would leave Ukraine and Georgia in a dangerous gray zone, neither with NATO nor with Russia\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

And yet a sphere of influence is exactly what Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks.<\/em><\/p>\n

The article continues<\/a> but here is their main argument against a sphere of influence:<\/p>\n

These arguments are flawed and should be rejected once and for all. To follow their recommendations would be to reward Putin for his aggression and assign blame for the current state of affairs not to the Russian leader, where it belongs, but to the enlargement of NATO, which has helped stabilize the European continent for more than seven decades. Putin invokes NATO enlargement as a convenient excuse when his real fear is the emergence of successful, democratic, Western-oriented countries along Russia\u2019s borders\u2014especially Ukraine.<\/em><\/p>\n

And then<\/a> a little history:<\/p>\n

In 2008, Ukraine and Georgia requested a membership action plan (MAP) as a step toward eventual membership. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was firmly opposed and worked out a compromise with President George W. Bush in the Bucharest summit declaration, which stated that the two countries would become members without specifying when and how. Five months later, Russian troops invaded Georgia, even though that country had not been offered a MAP.<\/em><\/p>\n

For a more middle ground on the argument, I suggest this podcast that we discussed a few days ago Inching Toward War in Europe<\/a> \u2013 Horns of Dilemma. <\/em>Will war actually break out? I don\u2019t think anyone really knows but Popular Mechanics tackles reading those tea leaves with Russia Won’t Start a War With Ukraine Out of the Blue. Look For These 8 Warning Signs<\/a>.<\/em> The article is really good and considers: Cyber Warfare, GPS Jamming, Attack Submarines and others.<\/p>\n

For the Ukrainian side, Al Monitor reports that Turkish drones boost Ukrainian spirits amid fears of Russian invasion<\/a> and according to Radio Free Europe the civilians are ‘Like Mice In A Frying Pan’: Civilians In Eastern Ukraine Take Their Fears To Social Media <\/a> .<\/p>\n

There are plenty of other stories that cover the conflict there from many different angles including this piece from the Modern War Institute – As Ukraine Faces Russian Aggression, What Should Small Countries Take Away from the Crisis?<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Moving on, the medic in me could not let this go without at least mentioning it, The Future and Past of War and Disease<\/em><\/a> from RAND.<\/p>\n

War and disease have a long and wretched history. The Athenians battled plague in addition to <\/em>Sparta<\/em><\/a>. In the late Middle Ages, disease contributed to the <\/em>fall<\/em><\/a> of the Venetian Empire. Napoleon benefited from Venice’s fall, but his own empire was brought low by disease. The Grande Arm\u00e9e that invaded Russia was hurt more by typhus than by the <\/em>Russians (PDF)<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Disease has also played a role in American military history. In <\/em>1777,<\/em><\/a> George Washington inoculated the Continental Army against smallpox. More than 60% of casualties on both sides of the American Civil War were attributed to <\/em>disease<\/em><\/a>. In World War I, the 1918 influenza pandemic <\/em>hampered efforts<\/em><\/a> to mobilize the American Expeditionary Forces.<\/em><\/p>\n

And for your looooong read of the day how about Joe Biden\u2019s Saigon: The Betrayal<\/a> \u2013 The Atlantic<\/em>. I don\u2019t know if I can do it. All of this and so much more in Today\u2019s Daily Dump!!<\/p>\n

Inspired by the Cognitive Raider Initiative, The Cognitive Warrior Project has put together a daily list of diverse articles that can easily be chosen from to play a part in developing a more mentally agile warfighter that embraces the adaptation required for tomorrow\u2019s battlefield. Our intent is to create a space where you can choose one or two articles a day (about 10 minutes) instead of mindlessly scrolling social media.<\/p>\n

As a reminder: The Cognitive Warrior Project is a private media site, and it is not affiliated in any way with Special Operation Forces, the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. None of the U.S. Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Coast Guard, DoD or Space Force have endorsed, supported, directed, or participated in the creation of the content at this site, or in the creation of the site itself. It\u2019s just a media site that happens to cover the U.S Military, DoD and other National Intelligence Assets.<\/em><\/p>\n

January 31, 2022<\/p>\n

Two Cheers for Spheres of Influence<\/a> \u2013 Real Clear Defense<\/p>\n

Hackers for Hire: Proxy Warfare in the Cyber Realm<\/a> \u2013 The Modern War Institute<\/p>\n

Be All You Can Be: Why the Marine Corps Should Look to the Army for Lessons on Force Design<\/a> \u2013 The Modern War Institute<\/p>\n

Podcast: How Capable is Ukraine\u2019s Military?<\/a> \u2013 MWI<\/p>\n

Beyond War and Peace: The PLA\u2019s \u201cNon-War Military Activities\u201d Concept<\/a> \u2013 The Modern War Institute<\/p>\n

As Ukraine Faces Russian Aggression, What Should Small Countries Take Away from the Crisis?<\/a> \u2013 The Modern War Institute<\/p>\n

Pressing Questions: Offensive Cyber Operations and NATO Strategy<\/a> \u2013 The Modern War Institute<\/p>\n

THE FALKLANDS AND LEADERSHIP IN MULTI-DOMAIN OPERATIONS (DUSTY SHELVES)<\/a> \u2013 War Room<\/p>\n

Podcast: ON CREDIBILITY AND REPUTATION: EDITOR\u2019S CORNER<\/a> \u2013 A Better Peace<\/p>\n

#Reviewing The Blind Strategist: John Boyd and the American Way of War<\/a> \u2013 The Strategy Bridge<\/p>\n

Melting the SOT Snowman: #Reviewing On Operations<\/a> \u2013 The Strategy Bridge<\/p>\n

Podcast: Episode 1: The View from Iran<\/a> \u2013 Mind the Gulf Podcast<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s Demands: It\u2019s Not About Ukraine, It\u2019s About Recreating an Empire<\/a> \u2013 RUSI<\/p>\n

Watch: Challenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part I)<\/a> \u2013 NSI<\/p>\n

The Future and Past of War and Disease<\/a> \u2013 RAND<\/p>\n

U.S. Department of Defense Civilian Casualty Policies and Procedures<\/a> \u2013 RAND<\/p>\n

Shaping China’s Ambitions<\/a> \u2013 RAND<\/p>\n

Houthis Renew Attack on Abu Dhabi With Ballistic Missiles <\/a>\u2013 Long War Journal<\/p>\n

Are European Navies Ready for High-Intensity Warfare?<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

Why Intermediate-Range Missiles Are a Focal Point in the Ukraine Crisis<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

Being a Better Partner in the Pacific<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

The Pentagon Is in Desperate Need of an Intervention From the Top<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

Taiwan Is Not Ukraine: Stop Linking Their Fates Together<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

How Long Can Biden Muddle Through on China?<\/a> \u2013 War on the Rocks<\/p>\n

Countering Hybrid Warfare: Mapping Social Contracts to Reinforce Societal Resiliency in Estonia and Beyond<\/a> \u2013 Texas National Security Review<\/p>\n

Commandant for a Day: Preparing War Colleges for the Future<\/a> \u2013 The Forge<\/p>\n

Train to Outthink, Outmaneuver, and Outfight the Enemy<\/a> \u2013 Small Wars Journal<\/p>\n

Nonlinear Warfare: Is Russia Waging a Silent War in Latin America?<\/a> \u2013 Small Wars Journal<\/p>\n

A Brief Look at Chinese Cyberwarfare<\/a> \u2013 Small Wars Journal<\/p>\n

1\/27\/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary<\/a> \u2013 Small Wars Journal<\/p>\n

1\/31\/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary<\/a> \u2013 Small Wars Journal<\/p>\n

Oil Market Cannot Afford to Lose Russian Supplies<\/a> \u2013 Center for Strategic and International Studies<\/p>\n

Filling In the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework<\/a> \u2013 Center for Strategic and International Studies<\/p>\n

Will Russia Recognize the Self-Declared Separatist Republics in Eastern Ukraine?<\/a> \u2013 Center for Strategic and International Studies<\/p>\n

Can America Rebuild Its Power in Asia?<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Affairs<\/p>\n

Master of Deterrence: What Washington Could Learn From Robert Powell<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Affairs<\/p>\n

Keep NATO\u2019s Door Open to Ukraine: Washington Shouldn\u2019t Grant Putin the Sphere of Influence He Wants<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Affairs<\/p>\n

The Putin Doctrine: A Move on Ukraine Has Always Been Part of the Plan<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Affairs<\/p>\n

When the Chips Are Down: Gaming the Global Semiconductor Competition<\/a> – CNAS<\/p>\n

North Korea tests biggest missile since 2017, U.S. calls for talks<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

Russia keeps door open to talks as U.S. rejects key security demands<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

Russian official says missile crisis unavoidable without arms curbs<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

Analysis: Portuguese snap election points to rocky road ahead<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

Guards clash again on Kyrgyz-Tajik border, no casualties reported<\/a> \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n

Ukraine crisis updates: What to know amid the fears of war<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

African Union suspends Burkina Faso after coup last week<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

Danish troops to leave Mali after call from country\u2019s rulers<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

Ukraine crisis updates: What to know as tensions rise<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

EU launches WTO action against China over Lithuania dispute<\/a> \u2013 AP<\/p>\n

Press freedom rapidly deteriorating in China \u2014 report<\/a> \u2013 DW<\/p>\n

‘Never Again’: Memorials of the Holocaust<\/a> \u2013 DW<\/p>\n

The Ukraine civilians taking up arms amid Russia border tension<\/a> \u2013 DW<\/p>\n

US: Nord Stream 2 will not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine<\/a> \u2013 DW<\/p>\n

Mysterious object ‘unlike anything’ seen before, discovered in Milky Way<\/a> \u2013 DW<\/p>\n

Turkish drones boost Ukrainian spirits amid fears of Russian invasion<\/a> \u2013 Al Monitor<\/p>\n

Egypt skeptical of Ethiopia call for cooperation on Nile dam<\/a> \u2013 Al Monitor<\/p>\n

Syrian prison battle leaves hundreds dead and many IS free<\/a> \u2013 Al Monitor<\/p>\n

How Russian moves in Syria are linked to Moscow’s Ukraine strategy<\/a> \u2013 Al Monitor<\/p>\n

Ukraine backs US response to Russia\u2019s security demands: Live news<\/a> \u2013 Al Jazeera<\/p>\n

Burkina Faso army warns ex-officials in talks over transition<\/a> \u2013 Al Jazeera<\/p>\n

Ukraine crisis: From Belarus to Japan, where do countries stand?<\/a> \u2013 Al Jazeera<\/p>\n

US-Taiwan contacts spark China war threat<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

Star Wars: the outer space race to kill hypersonics<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

Time is not on Russia\u2019s side in Ukraine<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

Myanmar junta in toys-for-the-boys weaponry splurge<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

Why Russia will likely intervene in Ukraine<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

The case against a Russia invasion of Ukraine<\/a> \u2013 Asia Times<\/p>\n

In Search of a Better Life, Thousands of Russians Are Crossing the Mexican Border to America<\/a> \u2013 The Moscow Times<\/p>\n

Russian Military Drills Off Irish Coast to Go Ahead Despite Ukraine Tensions<\/a> \u2013 The Moscow Times<\/p>\n

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Border Guards Exchange Fire<\/a> \u2013 The Moscow Times<\/p>\n

What Are Russian State Media Saying About Ukraine?<\/a> \u2013 The Moscow Times<\/p>\n

Live Updates: U.S. Faces Off With Russia at U.N. as Ukraine Standoff Continues<\/a> \u2013 The New York Times<\/p>\n

Video of Mentally Ill Woman Chained in Shack Stirs Anger in China<\/a> \u2013 The New York Times<\/p>\n

U.S. Allies Retake Control of Prison in Syria, Subduing ISIS Fighters<\/a> \u2013 The New York Times<\/p>\n

‘Like Mice In A Frying Pan’: Civilians In Eastern Ukraine Take Their Fears To Social Media <\/a> – Radio Free Europe<\/p>\n

 Can Ukraine’s Economy Withstand Russian Pressure? It’s Better Prepared This Time Around.<\/a> – Radio Free Europe<\/p>\n

At The Front Lines, Ukrainian Soldiers And Civilians Endure Cold, Wait For A Possible War With Russia<\/a> – Radio Free Europe<\/p>\n

Uganda, Rwanda border reopens after three-year closure<\/a> \u2013 Africa News<\/p>\n

60 militants killed ahead of Burkina coup – France<\/a> \u2013 Africa News<\/p>\n

Europe Must Shed Its Illusions About Russia<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

Latin America\u2019s Leftists Aren\u2019t Who You Think<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

How America Learned to Love (Ineffective) Sanctions<\/a> \u2013 Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

As Russia menaces Ukraine, eastern European countries grow nervous<\/a> \u2013 The Economist<\/p>\n

Retailers Quietly Deploying Controversial Technology To Combat Crime Spree<\/a> \u2013 Forbes<\/p>\n

Joe Biden\u2019s Saigon: The Betrayal<\/a> \u2013 The Atlantic<\/p>\n

Book Review \u2013 Ralph Honner: Kokoda Hero, by Peter Brune<\/a> \u2013 Grounded Curiosity<\/p>\n

Sowing Darkness for Military Advantage: Deception<\/a> \u2013 Wavell Room<\/p>\n

US Army\u2019s tactical network must overcome several challenges, says Pentagon weapons tester<\/a> \u2013 Defense News<\/p>\n

Mutually assured surveillance at risk: Anti-satellite weapons and cold war arms control<\/a> \u2013 Taylor and Francis Online<\/p>\n

Options to Address the Risk from Elected Officials Concurrently in the National Guard or Reserves<\/a> \u2013 Divergent Options<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s Coercion on NATO Goes Beyond Its Open Door Policy<\/a> \u2013 Just Security<\/p>\n

Cyberattack Targets Belarus’ Rail Network To Slow Flood Of Russian Forces Into The Country<\/a> \u2013 The Drive<\/p>\n

Russia Won’t Start a War With Ukraine Out of the Blue. Look For These 8 Warning Signs<\/a>. \u2013 Popular Mechanics<\/p>\n

The Army\u2019s New Rifle Scope Can Predict the Path of a Bullet<\/a> \u2013 Popular Mechanics<\/p>\n

Hiking 101: Everything You Need to Head for the Hills<\/a> \u2013 Wired<\/p>\n

Did we miss anything? Drop a comment or a link to an article to further the discussion. And don\u2019t forget to subscribe! It\u2019s free and our articles can be emailed directly to you so you don\u2019t miss a thing!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ukraine and Taiwan dominate the headlines today and their stories, rightly or wrongly, are being linked together but I agree with the basic premise of the War on the Rocks: Taiwan Is Not Ukraine: Stop Linking Their Fates Together. In the current geopolitical moment, the differences between Ukraine and Taiwan are far more important than […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1172,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"bgseo_title":"","bgseo_description":"","bgseo_robots_index":"index","bgseo_robots_follow":"follow","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[95,64,170,169],"class_list":["post-1171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bullets","tag-great-power-competition","tag-russia","tag-taiwan","tag-ukraine"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Bear-run.jpg","post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1171"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1171\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1174,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1171\/revisions\/1174"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1172"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cognitivewarriorproject.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}