I probably should have gotten this out yesterday, so some of it may be a little AOL, but with the convergence of the battlefields in Iran and Ukraine, this feels bigger and more important. I just have a feeling we are on the verge of something breaking big, and I don’t know in which direction it will go. I really try not to be an alarmist, and I could be wrong, but something feels different when reading about the battlefields of Europe and the Middle East. Anyway, let’s get to it!
First, the cost of circumvention.
🇸🇦Aramco built a reroute to avoid Hormuz and the Red Sea entirely.
Yanbu to Ain Sokhna, through the SUMED pipeline, out through Sidi Kerir, then around the Cape of Good Hope to reach Asia.
That workaround now costs about 5 dollars a barrel more in freight, insurance, and… pic.twitter.com/q6ykmaf5bt
— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) July 28, 2026
Now, the big news from yesterday.
At 5:45 p.m. ET today, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. forces remain vigilant and at a high…
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 28, 2026
It’s not that I ever believed a ceasefire would hold; it’s the brazenness. That leads to the question. Why now?
Iran Update Special Report, July 28, 2026: Three competing groups within the regime are attempting to influence negotiations policy. The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time. This group is likely led by… pic.twitter.com/f8YI38LlKA
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 29, 2026
In case you can’t read the whole post, here is the important part:
“Three competing groups within the regime are attempting to influence negotiations policy. The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time. This group is likely led by elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), including IRGC commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi.”
There is a deepening fracture in the Iranian leadership. This is good but dangerous, as demonstrated here.
🚨 The Islamic Republic has launched a massive drone and missile assault against Kurdish militia positions across Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, striking locations including Erbil, Koya, Soran, Kormor, and Khalifan.
The attacks come as Kurdish armed groups have been discussed in some… pic.twitter.com/qc0K82LJny
— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) July 27, 2026
And here:
While Everyone is watching the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis have attacked the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
As markets celebrates the pause in U.S.-Iran strikes, the Houthis escalated attacks against all Saudi energy infrastructure.🧵🇸🇦🇾🇪👇 pic.twitter.com/F596v9ny9I
— Francesco Sassi (@Frank_Stones) July 28, 2026
And here:
MORE | Saudi Arabia stated on July 27 that it shot down drones launched from Iraq aimed at petroleum facilities in its Eastern Province and in Riyadh.
Strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure support Iran’s goal of degrading the Gulf states’ willingness and ability to resist… https://t.co/ddwTSiXbRc pic.twitter.com/anuFfCraOR
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) July 28, 2026
“Strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure support Iran’s goal of degrading the Gulf states’ willingness and ability to resist Iranian control of the strait.”
The response:
BREAKING:
U.S. and Saudi fighter jets launch joint airstrikes against PMU (Iranian proxy) forces in Iraq.
The strikes come after PMU launched drone attacks against energy facilities in Saudi Arabia. pic.twitter.com/VzG1BFNy6h
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 29, 2026
NEW: Recent attacks on regional states by Iran’s proxies and partners enable Iran to maintain plausible deniability while continuing to advance its objective of coercing the United States to end the war in terms favorable to Iran, which include accepting Iranian control over the… pic.twitter.com/Vun9soc1Jf
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 28, 2026
No one believes them.
Something interesting is happening.
While Iran has halted its direct attacks, it appears to have shifted pressure to its proxies. Overnight, Iran backed militias in Iraq launched around 20 drones toward Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
If this pattern continues, I would not be…
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) July 28, 2026
Will Israel jump back into the fight?
The convergence:
Iran and Russia have been assisting each other in these wars for some time. IRGC terrorists were in Crimea helping Russia w/ drones in 2022.
This is why Ukraine knows better than anyone how to defend against Iranian drones! https://t.co/7c0khBMPCz— Rebeccah Heinrichs (@RLHeinrichs) July 28, 2026
The Russian offensive is not going well.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28, 2026: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, on July 28 to discuss strengthening Ukrainian air defenses and diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.
More Key… pic.twitter.com/ucX7JvBXlD
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 28, 2026
This is why:
Petraeus: The death zone in Ukraine extends 35 kilometers on either side of the front lines — defined by drone battery life. Tanks can’t survive. Armored vehicles can’t survive. Nothing can.
Neither side even drives vehicles anymore. Russians keep trying and keep proving it.… pic.twitter.com/jffabp5WuP
— Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@rshereme) July 28, 2026
“Crimea isolated, front lines cut off, economy crushed….”
About that economy:
BREAKING:
The Russian Central Bank cuts its GDP growth prognosis for 2026 and admits it could even drop to 0% due to Ukraine’s drone strikes.
The head of the bank, Elvira Nabiullina, expects faster inflation as the fuel crisis drives up prices for goods and services.
The 2026… pic.twitter.com/ATZNFU0YHs
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 28, 2026
The Russian response:
NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia is preparing to receive another 30,000 North Korean soldiers in response to Russian battlefield casualties. It is unclear what functions these additional North Korean personnel will perform, but Russia and North Korea… pic.twitter.com/v0QEysLSD6
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 28, 2026
Fasten those seatbelts, folks; the wars are escalating and converging.