Al Qaeda and ISIS in the Shael, Advisors in Afghanistan, The Arsenal of Democracy and other Bullets

The wife had the day off today. Her corona schedule has been crazy. I think she is working more hours now than before. Anyway, we spent the day running around as much as you can under the current conditions…Tractor Supply for chicken feed, the grocery store. It was a good day. I haven’t gotten a bullets page out there for a while and there is some really good stuff that I don’t want you to miss.

• The Long War Journal has two posts that you should head over and check out. First, Caleb Weiss brings you a story about Al Qaeda, Islamic State strike across the Sahel.

Continuing their assault across the Sahel, both al Qaeda and the Islamic State have claimed several attacks in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since the beginning of the month.

Significantly they note:

These assaults come as tensions between the two jihadist heavyweights have increased in the region. According to local media, the two sides have clashed recently in both southern Mali and in northern Burkina Faso.

As the Islamic State continues to grow in the Sahel, it is possible that it will be able to attract more fighters from al Qaeda’s camp. This will not come without consequences, however, as future battles between the two are likely to occur.

• Then, Thomas Joscelyn brings you a piece about Arrests in Germany highlight reach of Islamic State’s Central Asian network.

Last week, German authorities announced the arrests of four alleged Islamic State members. The suspects — identified as Azizjon B., Muhammadali G., Farhodshoh K. and Sunatullokh K. — are accused of planning attacks on U.S. military facilities and personnel. All four are from Tajikistan, a country the former caliphate has long targeted for recruiting purposes. And the recent arrests highlight the global dimension of this Central Asian network.

Both of these are definitely worth your time.

• The Small Wars Journal also has several articles to check out. Scott C. Buchanan makes The Case for Maintaining an Advisory Presence in Afghanistan. Buchanan considers the history of the Soviet invasion and ensuing civil war. In addition, he considers contradictory approaches and the problems associated with withdrawing advisors. Ultimately asking this question and concluding:

So how can the United States protect its investment in Afghanistan?  Rather than retrench from advising at the ministerial level, the United States and international forces should “double down” on its advisory presence.  This doesn’t necessarily mean more advisors, but rather high-quality advisors, experts in their fields, trained to work with difficult personalities.  But Afghan must also have a reason to keep talking to advisors – the international community must continue its financial support to the Afghan government.

• Douglas A. Livermore takes a look at The High-Tech Arsenal of Democracy: Economic Strength and Scientific Innovation in the Evolution of Modern Warfare.

The ability to leverage financial capabilities to bankroll both technological innovation and large-scale production of war materiel has increasingly driven the evolution of modern warfare. There is every indication that these interdependent elements will continue to have an even greater impact on the international security environment in the 21st century and beyond.

This entire thesis reminds me to the A. J. Baime book, The Arsenal of Democracy: FDR, Detroit, and an Epic Quest to Arm an America at War which will eventually get its own post.

• Then, Adam D.M. Svendsen, by Salem B.S. Dandan discuss Doing Intelligence Differently via ‘Intelligence Engineering’ (IE).

Today is an appropriate time for encouraging and indeed advocating some further innovative change both to and for contemporary intelligence. This article aims to accomplish that objective by featuring and further advancing an understanding of the recently introduced and developing concept of ‘Intelligence Engineering’, abbreviated henceforth as ‘IE’, and also known as the ‘Bridgehead Methodology’.

This is a pretty good article and it you are into intelligence gathering, analyzing and dissemination this is for you. Honestly, it’s a bit over my head and I would need to give it some thought and really try to digest it. They ultimately conclude:

Today’s multiple complexities, whether geostrategic or something else quite alternative, always benefit from being better understood. As introduced above – illustrated with drawing on the mini-case study example of the contemporary early-2020 COVID-19/coronavirus challenge – and (at least semi-) structured around IE templates, IE and its associated SoSD-based toolboxes and toolsets suggest that mechanisms for generating greater insight, with the added capability for fostering empowering directions and options for going further forward, are able to be fast available at hand. Continuing to rapidly evolve – together with alongside offering a series of developmental workshops and other facilitators that extend beyond, as well as able to be delivered more remotely via digital means – IE strives on.

• Over at Grounded Curiosity, Gareth Rice takes a look at The Future of Drugs in War. I don’t think that I agree with the conclusion but an interesting case is made:

The argument to allow the use of PEDs in the military is simple: why deprive combatants of any tool that might give them a competitive edge? Arguments that flatly reject the idea of PEDs in the military are largely short-sighted. Soldiers, sailors and airmen/airwomen are already using mandated PEDs every time they receive a vaccine that enhances their immune system. The widespread use of caffeine (in various forms) is an obvious example of stimulants that are used without any supervision or restrictions. So, the debate should probably start by asking what we want to achieve.

I have not read much on Grounded Curiosity, but think it will become a daily stop because there are many interesting articles there.

• And over at The Drive, Aaron Amick brings us a story of Naval war games in the Bahamas.

The Bahamas are home to white beaches, sun-scorched tourists, towering cruise ships, and the United States Navy’s most advanced weapons and sensor testing range. Beneath the revealing party goers dancing on the lido deck, submarines sail quietly through the Northeast Providence Channel into a secure area called the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center, or AUTEC. 

Lots of interesting stuff out there today, consider this just a primer for the bullets post tomorrow.