Just got back from a kayak adventure in the North Carolina swamps with two, three and four. Not far from here is the Black River, home to one of the oldest living trees in the world, a Bald Cypress that is over 2,642 years old. I think I have been trying to write this bullets post since Monday! I think I might try something new, bringing you the Article of the Day and the Most Thought Provoking. The Article of the Day will be the first linked article and the Most Thought Provoking will be the last.
- The Article of the Day: Kenneth Pollack at Real Clear World takes a look at Iraq’s Last, Best Hope. Personally, I found this article to be really interesting because I know babkas about the current internal politics of Iraq.
A ferocious political battle is raging in Baghdad over the selection of a new prime minister. Two excellent candidates have already been defeated. Iraq’s courageous President, Barham Salih, recently called on the best candidate of all — Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the chief of Iraq’s most professional intelligence service — to try to form a new government…
Kadhimi is highly intelligent, practical, insightful, and careful. He has proven himself to be an exceptionally effective intelligence chief, in which post he has fought corruption, incompetence, and national security threats with equal vigor and success. That’s a rare thing to say about any politician; in an Iraqi leader, it qualifies him for sainthood…
Kadhimi is an Iraqi nationalist who believes that a strong Iraq requires a strong relationship with the United States. He has worked hard to maintain good ties to the U.S. intelligence community. However, as a Shiite, he knows that Iran has too much to lose and too much influence in Iraq to be ignored. And as a one-time journalist, Kadhimi understands the Iraqi people, what they want, what they need, and why they feel so deeply betrayed by their leadership.
- There are multiple reports that Kim Jun Un is seriously ill which could have a very significant impact on…well, everything. There are some reports that he is dead or in a vegetative state: The New York Post, TMZ and Market Watch. Which brings up question about succession or what happens if he dies. This could definitely be something to watch or it could be fake news. I don’t know.
- Tyler Rogoway at The Drive warns: When It Comes To The Demise Of Kim Jong Un, Be Careful What You Wish For. This article came in a close second for article of the day!
If Kim goes, it is far from clear what we will get in his place. Instability at the very highest levels via the death of a god-like ruling family dictator in a country that is already starving and experiencing a global pandemic with little resources to fight it wouldn’t just be troubling, it could be terrifying.
Command and control over Kim’s young nuclear arsenal is already murky. If he is incapacitated, the risk goes up substantially. If he is dead, the question over who controls North Korea’s nuclear enterprise rises is a whole other level concern.
- The Long War Journal has three posts that you should head over and check out. First, Caleb Weiss brings you the story: Houthis allege capture of Al Qaeda base in northern Yemen.
The exact details of the capture of the AQAP base remain murky. The Houthis do not provide a date nor any confirmation about a clash with AQAP or if the headquarters was already abandoned. Additionally, no bodies are shown throughout the almost 15-minute film…
Al Jawf is a traditional stronghold of AQAP. Since 2010, the United States has launched at least 8 drone strikes in the province against AQAP personnel. Despite the airstrikes, the group remains active in the province today…
US airstrikes against AQAP in al Jawf include the September 2011 bombing run that killed Anwar al Awlaki, the American propagandist, ideologue, recruiter, and operational commander, and Samir Khan, an American who ran Inspire Magazine for the group.
- Bill Roggio published the piece Taliban lauds Mullah Omar for defending Osama bin Laden after 9/11.
As the U.S. is relying on the Taliban to keep Afghanistan from being a haven for terrorists in the wake of an agreement between the two parties, the Taliban lauds Mullah Omar’s defense of Osama bin Laden after Al Qaeda’s attack on the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001.
The Taliban praises Omar’s “historical statement” in a eulogy marking the seventh anniversary of his death. The statement, titled “A legendary leader, the Omar of our time,” was published on April 23 on the Taliban’s official website, Voice of Jihad.Both of these are definitely worth your time.
- Caleb Weiss has another article: Shabaab targets African Union, Kenyan troops in southern Somalia.
Al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, Shabaab, has claimed responsibility for two attacks against both African Union (or AMISOM) and Kenyan troops inside southern Somalia. However, the group has likely overstated its successes.
- David B. Larter at Defense News reports Defense Department study calls for cutting 2 of the US Navy’s aircraft carriers.
The study calls for a fleet of nine carriers, down from the current fleet of 11, and for 65 unmanned or lightly manned surface vessels. The study calls for a surface force of between 80 and 90 large surface combatants, and an increase in the number of small surface combatants – between 55 and 70, which is substantially more than the Navy currently operates…
Cutting two aircraft carriers would permanently change the way the Navy approaches presence around the globe and force the service to rethink its model for projecting power across the globe, said Jerry Hendrix, a retired Navy captain and analyst with the Telemus Group.
- The Atlantic Council’s , David L. Goldwyn, Andrea Clabough and David L. Goldwyn bring you a story about Containing Russian influence in Venezuela.
The Russian government has been instrumental in preserving the Maduro regime, despite years of intense domestic and international pressure favoring a democratic transition. Russia, under the auspices of President Vladimir Putin, has provided the regime invaluable diplomatic leverage, security personnel, and material, as well as an economic lifeline. Until recent sanctions ended the practice, this has taken the form of support from Russian oil company Rosneft to buy, transport, and sell Venezuelan crude. That trade allowed state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) and the Maduro regime, by extension, to profit off of Venezuela’s massive natural resource base. Indeed, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has stated that Maduro might have forfeited power and left Venezuela in April 2019 had his Russian backers not convinced him to stay at a crisis moment.
- What Does Russia Want From the United States? In an opinion piece in the Moscow Times, Dmitry Trenin.
Given that virtually the entire U.S. political class has a highly negative view of Russia, Moscow’s gestures and overtures are addressed to President Donald Trump personally. The aim is to get him to accept a last-minute dialogue with Russia on extending the New START Treaty on reducing nuclear arms, which is due to expire in February 2021. Putin certainly has a broader agenda, which probably includes the Middle East and Ukraine.
- Connor Dilleen at Real Clear Defense writes about the Approaching the Endgame on the Iran Nuclear Issue.
As policymakers globally are preoccupied with managing the devasting impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, a perfect storm of events appears to be coalescing around the Iran nuclear issue. Although both the U.S. and Iran stepped back from the precipice of direct military conflict in early 2020, following the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Soleimani, a number of developments since then—including Covid-19 itself—have arguably increased the prospect of Washington launching a strike against Iranian targets at some point before the U.S. presidential election in November.
- Since we are discussing Iran, Seth J. Frantzman with National Review reports that Iran Uses the Pandemic to Further Provocations in the Gulf.
Eleven Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard fast boats harassed U.S. naval vessels in the Persian Gulf in mid April. Footage released by the U.S. Navy shows the Iranian speed boats with machine guns mounted on the front buzzing around the USS Lewis Puller and the guided-missile destroyer USS Paul Hamilton. Tehran is upping its harassment amid the coronavirus pandemic and, playing out in the Pacific, a U.S. Navy controversy in which carrier captain Brett Crozier was very publicly relieved of command for actions during the pandemic. It reflects Iran’s decision to suddenly test the U.S. Navy’s response to pressure America’s presence across the Middle East.
- Kyle Mizokami at Popular Mechanics has an article about The Electric Vehicle Revolution Is Finally Hitting the U.S. Army. You read that right, an electrical replacement for the Humvee. Personally, I have some concerns, but if they can make it work it looks pretty cool.
The U.S. Army could start purchasing electric versions of the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, the Pentagon’s new replacement for the Humvee. The Army believes that the gradual shift from liquid fuel powered engines to electric engines could force it to electrify its wheeled vehicles. The service cites both logistical but also economic reasons why a JLTV-EV might be in its future…
Electric vehicles, on the other hand, could be resupplied a number of ways. Smaller fleets could receive power by the sun, while larger fleets at sprawling megabases could draw power from a new generation of portable military nuclear reactors. Achieving energy self-sufficiency would go a long way towards reducing the logistical “tail” of U.S. combat forces.
I had to follow the link on portable military nuclear reactors…
The department awarded contracts to BWX Technologies, Inc. of Virginia, for $13.5 million; Westinghouse Government Services of Washington, D.C. for $11.9 million; and X-energy, LLC of Maryland, for $14.3 million, to begin a two-year engineering design competition for a small nuclear microreactor designed to potentially be forward deployed with forces outside the continental United States.
- Kyle Mizokami also has an article: 60 Years Ago, a Submerged Submarine Circled the Globe for the First Time. One of my brothers was a submariner.
In 1960, the U.S. Navy conducted a landmark exercise in the history of submarine warfare. The nuclear powered submarine USS Triton circumnavigated the globe completely underwater, proving that submarines—which until then had spent much of their time on the surface—could now operate completely submerged…It was all thanks to nuclear energy, which provided unlimited power to submarines.
- Most Thought Provoking: Again, Gareth Rice at Grounded Curiosity, challenges what I believe to be ethically o.k. in The Genetically Engineered War.
There’s a new frontier of science that is having far reaching implications for the world. Gene editing, more commonly known by its new technique CRISPR, has the potential to change the food we eat, the plants we grow, the pets we keep and, more pressingly, it now has the potential to change the wars we fight. Unsurprisingly then, its use has profound national security implications, leading the U.S. Government to declare it a weapon of mass destruction in 2016.
So, does CRISPR have the potential to change war as we know it? The short answer is yes, because it also has the potential to change human life as we know it. Genes are the fundamental code of life. Mapping them allows us to understand how our bodies work and, more importantly, how to alter them. Long before CRISPR (an acronym for Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats) was discovered, we have used selective breeding to manipulate these genes in a variety of applications for animals. The Nazi Lebensborn program provides one horrifying example of such attempts at eugenics in humans.
I would love to hear everyone’s thoughts on that last one.