Daily Dump: Seeking Strategic Clarity, Poison Frogs, Irregular Warfare in India, Illegal Fishing and More – November 18, 2021

Daily Dump: Seeking Strategic Clarity, Poison Frogs, Irregular Warfare in India, Illegal Fishing and More – November 18, 2021

Earlier this week I mentioned in passing the very good Net Assessment podcast: Richard Haass Is Here! in which Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, discuss’ ‘what the United States has gotten right and wrong the last few decades, focusing particularly on decisions about when to use force as well as U.S. policies on Iraq, Afghanistan, China, and trade.’ My favorite line from the podcast was, ‘we can’t let our ambition get our of sync with local realities.’ But his point near the end of the podcast that we needed strategic clarity on Taiwan as opposed to strategic ambiguity was probably the most important. To that end, the latest MWI podcast, Taiwan, China, and the Poison Frog Strategy, and CNAS article, The Poison Frog Strategy: Preventing a Chinese Fait Accompli Against Taiwanese Islands, makes a similar argument based on their wargaming process. What I took away from the podcast is that the U.S. would be best served if China knew exactly where the they stood in regards to Taiwan. Expectation management to avoid all-out war. All three are definitely worth your time. War on the Rocks also has a really good article, Taiwan’s Defense Plans Are Going Off the Rails, offering a critique on Taiwan’s defense spending.  Staying in the region, Reuters reports Philippines tells China to ‘back off’ after South China Sea standoff. In this latest standoff, ‘The Philippines… condemned “in strongest terms” the actions of three Chinese coast guard vessels that it said blocked and used water cannon on resupply boats headed towards a Philippine-occupied atoll in the South China Sea.’ Whether is territorial claims of fishing rights, China in no stranger to conflict in the region. While not centered around fishing in this incident, Illegal fishing: another target in West Africa’s maritime battleground from the Institute for Security Studies, discusses the problems of illegal fishing near Africa. I know that I have said this before, but I think illegal fishing is an area the U.S. can build a national consensus against the actions of China in strategic competition. To wrap things up today, let’s go to the Modern War Institute’s Managing Violence: Lessons in Irregular Warfare from India where lessons can be learned for the U.S. way of warfare. Lot’s of other great stories / podcasts today…

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November 18, 2021

Aiding Afghan Local Governance:  What Went Wrong? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Podcast: Taiwan, China, and the Poison Frog Strategy – MWI

The Poison Frog Strategy: Preventing a Chinese Fait Accompli Against Taiwanese Islands – Center for a New American Security

Managing Violence: Lessons in Irregular Warfare from India – Modern War Institute

Discordance in the Iran Threat Network in Iraq: Militia Competition and Rivalry – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point


The UK and Russia in the Middle East: Dialogue is Vital to Build Mutual Understanding – Royal United Service Institute

The Unpromising Geopolitics of a ‘Green’ Economy – Royal United Service Institute

Podcast: Episode 14: Turkey and the Future of European Security – Global Security Briefing Podcasts

Speaker Series: Adapting the Future Forces for Strategic Advantage—US and UK Senior Leaders in Conversation – NSI

Analysis: Islamic State targets Uganda with bombings – Long War Journal

Not at Any Price: LBJ, Pakistan, and Bargaining in an Asymmetric Intelligence Relationship – Texas National Security Review

Taiwan’s Defense Plans Are Going Off the Rails – War on the Rocks

“I Have Other Data”: The Guardia Nacional and the Entrenchment of Mexico’s Militarization – War on the Rocks

Why Cyber War Is Subversive, and How that Limits its Strategic Value – War on the Rocks

The New ADF – the way to the inclusive future – The Forge

11/17/2021 National Security and Korean News and Commentary – Small Wars Journal

Moscow’s Continuing Ukrainian Buildup – Center for Strategic and International Studies

A Nuclear Iran Is Not Inevitable – Center for Strategic and International Studies

The Shot Heard around the World – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Illegal fishing: another target in West Africa’s maritime battleground – Institute for Security Studies

Event – November 25: How has organised crime in Africa changed since 2019? – Institute for Security Studies

Europe Needs to Step Up on Defense: Brussels Should Borrow and Spend More on Security – Foreign Affairs

China’s Power Outage: The Real Reasons Behind Beijing’s Energy Crisis – Foreign Affairs

U.S., Canada, Mexico set to donate vaccines, unveil new methane curbs – Reuters

Taiwan commissions advanced new F-16s as China threat grow – Reuters

Philippines tells China to ‘back off’ after South China Sea standoff – Reuters

EXCLUSIVE ASEAN states object as China lobbies for Myanmar junta to join summit: sources – Reuters

Sudanese activists call for escalation after deadliest day since coup – Reuters

The AP Interview: Ex-Interpol wife takes on China government – AP

US warns pilots of weapon fire as war nears Ethiopia capital – AP

Sudan minister: Return to pre-coup arrangement ‘unrealistic’ – AP

China coast guard uses water cannon against Philippine boats – AP

Hate speech in Myanmar continues to thrive on Facebook – AP

Desperate Afghans forced to sell children – DW

Poland-Belarus border: First Iraqis to be repatriated – DW

Germany’s Merkel warns against Europe ‘decoupling’ from China – DW

Belarus-Poland crisis: Death and misery at the border – DW

Turkey’s war of attrition against Syria’s Kurds – Al Monitor

Egypt appeals to keep US-led forces in Sinai – Al Monitor

Oil pipeline reportedly explodes in Iran’s Khuzestan region – Al Monitor

Indonesia edging towards the nuclear option – Asia Times

Xi’s historical resolution aims for more military firepower – Asia Times

Korea peace talk brings UN alliance into play – Asia Times

New Delhi’s Air Turns Toxic, and the Finger-Pointing Begins – The New York Times

Mass Detentions of Civilians Fan ‘Climate of Fear’ in Ethiopia – The New York Times

How the Belarus Standoff Is Unlike Recent Migrant Crises – The New York Times

Four Killed In Blast At Romanian Munitions Factory – Radio Free Europe

Taliban Takeover In Afghanistan Triggers Detentions Inside Neighboring Uzbekistan – Radio Free Europe

Ethiopia: civilian millitary volunteers ready to defend Addis Ababa – Africa News

15 shot dead in crackdown on Sudan anti-coup protests – Africa News

Biden Struggles to Stick to the Script on Taiwan – Foreign Policy

They were painted as rogue Green Berets. This is the truth the Pentagon doesn’t want you to hear – Task and Purpose

How the game of Go explains China’s aggression towards India – The Economist

How not to lose the war on terror in Africa – The Economist

A Memoir From the Head of Saudi Intelligence – Lawfare

Tiny Leadership Tales: ‘No Effect Without Respect’ – Grounded Curiosity

Putin Accuses West of ‘Escalating Situation’ in Ukraine – The Moscow Times

When US Security and Democracy Interests Clash – Just Security

“Full of Sound and Fury”: Afghanistan’s Tragedy Becomes America’s Drama – Just Security

It’s Time to End ‘Business as Usual’ With Nigeria – United States Institute of Peace

Secret RQ-180 “White Bat” Spy Drone Alluded To In New Air Force Video – The Drive

Securing your digital life, the finale: Debunking worthless “security” practices – Ars Technica

Bill Gates’ nuclear power company selects a site for its first reactor – Ars Technica

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