With the holidays upon us, time for writing has been limited to say the least. Today’s post will catch us up to December 6 and then I should be able to get us current either today or tomorrow.
This is a very AOL post as the world has pretty much moved past the Ukraine story. I didn’t really think that we were heading to war there, but I also don’t think this story is over. I believe it will remain relevant, albeit only on a slow simmer, but still has value because you will be better prepared the next time tensions flare in the region. To get started, I think a quick check on knowledge should be your first stop and Radio Free Europe has a quiz for you: Quiz: How Much Do You Know About Ukraine-Russia Tensions? I did not do as well as I thought I would. But, in my defense, there were two questions that I was 50/50 on and chose the wrong answer on both. As Transatlantic allies ramp up pressure on Russia over Ukraine – DW, the New York Times writes: Ukraine, Explained. The article is important mostly for its glaring omission of a detailed discussion of the 2014 Maidan Revolution. A revolution that changed Ukraine’s government from being Pro-Russian to Pro-Western / NATO is a pretty big deal and probably deserves some ink. For more on that, I suggest taking a look back to a 2014 article from Vox: Everything you need to know about the Ukraine crisis. You can go here for their updated take on the conflict, Wait, is Russia going to invade Ukraine? Both are excellent and definitely worth your time. If I was forced to distill this conflict and the two Vox pieces into 3 quote’s, they would be:
“Putin sees Ukraine’s closer cooperation with the West, specifically NATO, as leading toward an unacceptable outcome for Moscow: Ukraine’s potential membership in the alliance…
“The reason there’s a war in Ukraine has a lot to do with Russia’s perception of the post-Cold War order in Europe, this notion that Western states have been moving closer and closer to Russia’s borders, and indeed, gobbling up its natural sphere of influence,” Oliker said. “Ukraine’s the front line on that.”…
“In getting to the point [where] Zelensky was calling for outright membership in NATO and crossing what Russia has long viewed as one of their red lines”
To wrap this up, I suggest What Putin really told Biden: Russian and US leaders dropped their respective rhetorical gauntlets but nobody really expects Russia to invade Ukraine from the Asia Times because they have a view that is distinctly different from most US news sources. It appears they were correct as, according to The Moscow Times, Biden Says Sending U.S. Troops to Ukraine ‘Not on the Cards.’
If you are looking for a couple good podcasts that you may have missed I suggest you start here: A Faustian Bargain – Horns of Dilemma and America and the Arctic: A Song of Fire and Ice – Net Assessment. The first is a largely unknown (at least to me anyway) story about the German build up to WWII by hiding manufacturing and troop training in Russia. The other, is great because it offers an excellent discussion on the importance of the Arctic and how the US in not prepared for any level of competition. If you are looking for something really different that you may have never considered, I suggest watching: Sand trafficking: Morocco’s silent menace from the Institute for Security Studies. Who knew sand was that valuable? All of this and more, in Today’s not so Daily Dump!
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November 17 – December 6, 2021
Explained: Ukraine conflict in maps – ABC News
Podcast: Learning from the Past, Anticipating the Future: Organizational Change in Irregular Warfare – Irregular Warfare Project
Podcast: Cyberspace as a Battlespace: Irregular Warfare through Bits and Bytes – Irregular Warfare Project
Getting Competition Wrong: The US Military’s Looming Failure – Modern War Institute
Podcast: A Looming Showdown Over Ukraine? – MWI
Teaching Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition at Stanford, Part 3: AI and Autonomy – Modern War Institute
Teaching Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition at Stanford, Part 4: Space and Cyber – Modern War Institute
After 9/11, the United States Didn’t Fight a Twenty-Year War, but Twenty One-Year Wars. But What Does that Actually Mean? – Modern War Institute
What We Learned Creating the Army’s First Urban Planners Course – Modern War Institute
Podcast: Feral Cities and the Military – Urban Warfare Project
Podcast: LYKKE’S LITTLE THREE-LEGGED STOOL (PART 1) Re-release – A Better Peace
Podcast: LYKKE’S LITTLE THREE-LEGGED STOOL (PART 2) Re-release – A Better Peace
Podcast: DEFENDING THE HOMELAND IN THE CYBER AGE – A Better Peace
SSP Event: State Fragility, Violent Conflict, and the GFA – Georgetown Security Studies Review
#Reviewing The Folly of Generals: How Eisenhower’s Broad Front Strategy Lengthened World War II – The Strategy Bridge
#Reviewing A Bridge in Babylon – The Strategy Bridge
Podcast: Episode 28: Financial Connections in Extremism – Financial Crime Insights
Podcast: Episode 72: Natia Seskuria: Russian Borderisation Tactics – Western Way of War
Operationalising the Constrain Concept: Competing Below the Threshold – Royal United Service Institute
Russian and Chinese Efforts to Encircle Japan May Prove Counterproductive – Royal United Service Institute
China’s Hypersonic Missile Test Does Not Change the Nuclear Calculus – Royal United Service Institute
Speaker Series: Competing Visions of World Order – NSI
A Guide to Extreme Competition with China – RAND
Impact of the U.S. and Allied Sanction Regimes on Russian Arms Sales – RAND
Jihadist attacks flow into littoral West Africa – Long War Journal
In fight against Islamic State, the Taliban holds major advantage – Long War Journal
Podcast: A Faustian Bargain – Horns of Dilemma
Podcast: America and the Arctic: A Song of Fire and Ice – Net Assessment
Podcast: STARTing over on Arms Control? – Horns of Dilemma
The Counter-Intuitive Sensibility of Taiwan’s New Defense Strategy – War on the Rocks
This Land Is No Longer Your Land: A Primer on Territorial Disputes – War on the Rocks
Toward a Trans-Atlantic Strategy on Russia Sanctions – War on the Rocks
The Uncomfortable Reality of the U.S. Army’s Role in a War Over Taiwan – War on the Rocks
Profession of Arm Seminar: Civil-Military Relations in Australia: Past, Present and Future – The Forge
What Professional Reading Lists Should Be: A Book Review of Marine Maxims by Col. Thomas J. Gordon – Small Wars Journal
Kabul, Afghanistan to Kansas, America The Story of Shakila Nazari – Small Wars Journal
Commentary – A designation constraining peace: why the US’ delisting of FARC as a foreign terrorist organisation is critical – Small Wars Journal
12/6/2021 National Security and Korean News and Commentary – Small Wars Journal
An Uninformed Policy: The Effects of American Arms Sales in the Middle East During the Six-Day War – The Civil – The Civil Affairs Association
Advancing U.S.-China Health Security Cooperation in an Era of Strategic Competition – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Getting Goudoumaria right: are Boko Haram defectors reintegrating safely? – Institute for Security Studies
Watch: Sand trafficking: Morocco’s silent menace – Institute for Security Studies
Africa and Europe: building consensus on migration – Institute for Security Studies
How India and China Can Keep the Peace – Foreign Affairs
When Terrorists Govern: How the Taliban’s Takeover Is Inspiring Other Jihadis – Foreign Affairs
The Age of America First – Foreign Affairs
The Future of the Digital Order – CNAS
EXCLUSIVE Sudan cut off from $650 million of international funding after coup – Reuters
Ukraine welcomes Biden-Putin call as path to deterrence and de-escalation – Reuters
Coffee crisis in Central America fuels record exodus north – Reuters
Report: Chinese hackers targeted Southeast Asian nations – AP
Germany’s Olaf Scholz pushes for stronger EU, issues warning to Russia – DW
Opinion: Görlach Global: Germany’s new foreign minister to break with Merkel’s China policy – DW
Transatlantic allies ramp up pressure on Russia over Ukraine – DW
Intel: US announces Iran, Syria sanctions ahead of democracy summit – Al Monitor
Muqtada Sadr uses personal diplomacy in search of Iraqi deal – Al Monitor
Why China, Russia and US won’t save the Taliban – Asia Times
First battle could be the end for Taiwan – Asia Times
US hands China a victory in Ethiopia – Asia Times
India’s Top Military General Dies in Helicopter Crash – The New York Times
On Ukrainian Front, Grinding War and Weary Anticipation of Invasion – The New York Times
Taiwan, Trade, Tech and More: A Tense Era in U.S.-China Ties – The New York Times
Ukraine, Explained – The New York Times
Take A Guess! How Have The Lives Of Russians Changed Over The Last 30 Years? – Radio Free Europe
Quiz: How Much Do You Know About Ukraine-Russia Tensions? – Radio Free Europe
Boots On The Ground: Satellite Images Reveal Russian Troop Buildup Near Ukrainian Border And In Crimea – Radio Free Europe
Sudan’s top general Al-Burhan warns against foreign interference – Africa News
How Islamic Fundamentalists Get Away With Murder in Pakistan – Foreign Policy
What Is China’s Future in Africa? – Foreign Policy
Alwyn Cashe to finally receive posthumous Medal of Honor for Iraq War heroism – Task and Purpose
Bipin Rawat, India’s chief of defence staff, is killed in a helicopter crash – The Economist
National Security by Platform – Lawfare
Understanding the Pro-China Propaganda and Disinformation Tool Set in Xinjiang – Lawfare
My Curious Month – Grappling with Military Imagination – Grounded Curiosity
It’s Time to Democratise Doctrine – Wavell Room
Should “Jack” Be Allowed to Lead All Trades – Wavell Room
Biden Says Sending U.S. Troops to Ukraine ‘Not on the Cards’ – The Moscow Times
Assessing the Threat from Social Media Enabled Domestic Extremism in an Era of Stagnant Political Imagination – Divergent Options
Putin’s Gamble on Ukraine – Just Security
Bringing Climate and Terrorism Together at the UN Security Council – Proceed with Caution – Just Security
Why All the Coups? – United States Institute of Peace
Saudi Arabia Is Running Out Of Patriot Missiles In Its Conflict With The Houthis – The Drive
U.S. Military Steps Up Planning For Evacuation Operation In Ukraine As Crisis Deepens: Report (Updated) – The Drive
If Russia Strikes Ukraine, Here’s How the Pentagon Could Bring the Heat – Popular Mechanics
A New Video Explains, In Graphic Terms, Why the UN Must Ban ‘Slaughterbots’ – Popular Mechanics
Renewable Energy Is Great—but the Grid Can Slow It Down – Wired
Peng Shuai and the Real Goal of Chinese Censorship – Wired
Some “true believers” in space settlement are starting to make it happen – Ars Technica
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