There are so many really important directions I could go with today’s post, heck the podcast that I listened to on today’s commute, Podcast: A Slavish Devotion to Presence? – Net Assessment, (it’s really good) could get an entire post in and of itself. I want to write about Yemen (4 linked articles below) Japan (two linked articles), Afghanistan (5 linked articles), China or Information Operations but today I think we need to dive into the unrest in Kazakhstan a bit to see what the heck is going on there and should we even care.
Let me apologize upfront for all of the cut and paste. There is a lot going here and I was afraid that I would miss key details by trying to write it myself. Also, I am starting from zero in regards to information on Kazakhstan. I am NO expert. First, the facts: From Wikipedia
With an area of 2,700,000 square kilometres (1,000,000 sq mi) – equivalent in size to Western Europe – Kazakhstan is the ninth-largest country and largest landlocked country in the world. While it was part of the Russian Empire, Kazakhstan lost some of its territory to China’s Xinjiang province,[38] and some to Uzbekistan’s Karakalpakstan autonomous republic during Soviet years…
Kazakhstan has an abundant supply of accessible mineral and fossil fuel resources. Development of petroleum, natural gas, and mineral extractions has attracted most of the over $40 billion in foreign investment in Kazakhstan since 1993 and accounts for some 57% of the nation’s industrial output (or approximately 13% of gross domestic product). According to some estimates,[41] Kazakhstan has the second largest uranium, chromium, lead, and zinc reserves; the third largest manganese reserves; the fifth largest copper reserves; and ranks in the top ten for coal, iron, and gold. It is also an exporter of diamonds. Perhaps most significant for economic development, Kazakhstan also currently has the 11th largest proven reserves of both petroleum and natural gas.[42]
So, what is going on? From the AP: EXPLAINER: What’s behind unrest rocking oil-rich Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is experiencing the worst street protests the country has seen since gaining independence three decades ago.
The outburst of instability is causing significant concern in Kazakhstan’s two powerful neighbors: Russia and China. The country sells most of its oil exports to China and is a key strategic ally of Moscow.
More from DW: Kazakhstan: What’s behind the unrest?
Kazakhstan is experiencing the heaviest unrest in its history. For a long time, Russia’s second most important ally in the post-Soviet realm was known as stable.
Driven by the sudden spike in fuel prices, thousands of protestors have taken the streets to protest the authoritarian government. Again, from the AP.
Of the five Central Asian republics that gained independence following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan is by far the largest and the wealthiest. It spans a territory the size of Western Europe and sits atop colossal reserves of oil, natural gas, uranium and precious metals.
But while Kazakhstan’s natural riches have helped it cultivate a solid middle class, as well as a substantial cohort of ultrarich tycoons, financial hardship is widespread. The average national monthly salary is just under $600. The banking system has fallen prey to deep crises precipitated by non-performing loans. As in much of the rest of the region, petty corruption is rampant.
Back to DW:
The latest protest wave originated in Zhanaozen where, 10 years ago, fierce unrest erupted after oil workers went on strike. Over a dozen people were killed when authorities cracked down on the protests. The country’s reputation as a peaceful and only moderately autocratic nation had taken a hit.
While low wages sparked the 2011 unrest, this time, Zhanaozen residents took to the streets over a steep rise in autogas prices. Used by many to power their cars, the gas has doubled in prince in the new year. The government, which has now resigned, said the increase resulted from a rise in demand and production shortages.
The price of gas was not the only issue that drove the protestors to the streets. The banking system played a role also. For that perspective we will go to Radio Free Europe: Kazakhs Were Fed Up With Minor Concessions And Officials Paying Lip Service To Reforms
One of the most prominent on the ever-growing list of demands by protesters was debt relief for those who had taken out hard-currency loans just before the government allowed the national currency — the tenge — to depreciate and lose half of its value.
For why this matters, we will turn to The New York Times: Revolt in Kazakhstan: What’s Happening, and Why It Matters
The latest demonstrations matter because the country has been regarded until now as a pillar of political and economic stability in an unstable region, even as that stability has come at the price of a repressive government that stifles dissent…
The protests are also significant as Kazakhstan has been aligned with Russia, whose president, Vladimir V. Putin, views the country — a body double of sorts for Russia in terms of its economic and political systems — as part of Russia’s sphere of influence…
For the Kremlin, the events represent another possible challenge to autocratic power in a neighboring country. This is the third uprising against an authoritarian, Kremlin-aligned nation, following pro-democracy protests in Ukraine in 2014 and in Belarus in 2020…
Kazakhstan also matters to the United States, as it has become a significant country for American energy concerns, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron having invested tens of billions of dollars in western Kazakhstan, the region where the unrest began this month.
And more from The Moscow Times: Russia’s Involvement in Kazakhstan’s Crisis Could Have Wide Implications
Experts believe Moscow risks being sucked into neighboring unrest and having to manage strategic instability on two fronts…
Russia’s deployment of troops as part of a military alliance to put down growing protest in neighboring Kazakhstan will have major ramifications for Moscow’s foreign and domestic policy, experts told the Moscow Times on Thursday.
“For now, this is less an armed intervention than a police operation,” said Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a Kremlin-linked think tank.
“But if it drags on, consequences for Russia could mount up.”
I know, lots of cut and paste today but I don’t think I could have written it better. For more details, you definitely should follow the links, especially to The Moscow Times article (and I didn’t even link to this Reuters article Russia sends troops to put down deadly Kazakh uprising! ) There is so much more there on the potential implications to Russia that, honestly, I didn’t know where to begin and end on the cutting and pasting. Could this be a spark in the region similar to the Arab Spring in 2010? Maybe, considering the unrest in both Ukraine and Belarus. Regardless, I think this is a very big deal that has the potential to drag on for a very long time. For now though, lets put a pin in this story and continue to follow the news for developments.
For something different today, how about Diamonds, Pineapples, And A Soviet Execution from Radio Free Europe. They had me at pineapples. All of this and so much more in Today’s Daily Dump!
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January 6, 2022
In a tense corner of Europe, SEALs and Green Berets are helping a close ally up its skills with old US gear – Business Insider
Russia sends troops to put down deadly Kazakh uprising – Reuters
N.Korea launches second hypersonic missile in fiery test – Reuters
Japan’s security role and Taiwan seen in focus at ‘two-plus-two’ talks with U.S. – Reuters
Japan, Australia sign defence pact for closer cooperation – Reuters
World food prices hit 10-year high in 2021 – Reuters
China to appoint special envoy for Horn of Africa – Reuters
EXPLAINER: What’s behind unrest rocking oil-rich Kazakhstan – AP
Three Chinese nationals abducted in Nigeria, police say – AP
Stance on Russia, China a test for new German government – AP
China plans space station completion, many launches in 2022 – AP
Kazakhstan: What’s behind the unrest? – DW
Yemen’s Houthis accuse Saudi-led coalition of diverting fuel ship – Al Monitor
Iranian forces rescue Indian ship – Al Monitor
The Takeaway: Iraq’s elections: What comes next? – Al Monitor
Soleimani’s replacement vows revenge for his killing – Al Monitor
Houthi forces shoot down alleged Emirati spy drone – Al Monitor
Saudi coalition demands Houthis release UAE vessel seized in Red Sea – Al Monitor
Russia arming up China’s New Cold War rivals – Asia Times
India-China trade surge muffles beating war drums – Asia Times
US military presence abroad faces more opposition in 2022 – Asia Times
Indonesia export ban puts China in a coal bind – Asia Times
Taliban-Pakistan tensions bubbling on the border – Asia Times
Revolt in Kazakhstan: What’s Happening, and Why It Matters – The New York Times
Kazakhs Were Fed Up With Minor Concessions And Officials Paying Lip Service To Reforms – Radio Free Europe
Diamonds, Pineapples, And A Soviet Execution – Radio Free Europe
First Firefight: Turkmen, Taliban Engage In Border Shoot-Out – Radio Free Europe
Central Asia And The Taliban: The Difference Between A Restive Border And A Quiet One – Radio Free Europe
Vaccines, trade and infrastructure as Chinese FM visits Africa – Africa News
Huawei invests in data centres in Africa – Africa News
Finland and Sweden Are Done With Deference to Russia – Foreign Policy
Yemen’s Parallel War in Cyberspace – Foreign Policy
Pentagon Worries About Chinese Buildup Near India – Foreign Policy
Bashar al-Assad’s Unlikely Comeback – Foreign Policy
Air Force pilot awarded for saving Green Berets surrounded by Taliban fighters in 2018 – Task and Purpose
Rethinking “Rules of the Road” to Stabilize U.S.-China Competition – Lawfare
The Strategic Intelligence Value of Ransomware – Lawfare
Preserving Formation Reconnaissance – Wavell Room
Lead Us Not Into Temptation – Wavell Room
Converging Ways of War: Russian, China and America – Wavell Room
Russia’s Involvement in Kazakhstan’s Crisis Could Have Wide Implications – The Moscow Times
Opinion: Why Russia Fears a Ukrainian Offensive – The Moscow Times
Fraud Conviction Appears to Reveal Russian Troop Deployment in East Ukraine – The Moscow Times
Options to Counter Foreign Influence Operations Targeting Servicemember and Veterans – Divergent Options
Assessing Russian Use of Social Media as a Means to Influence U.S. Policy – Divergent Options
Civilian Casualties in U.S. Air Wars: A Wake-up Call for Canada and its Future Use of Armed Drones? – Just Security
How to Mitigate Afghanistan’s Economic and Humanitarian Crises – United States Institute for Peace
The World and Russia Need to Talk. But Not at Gunpoint. – United States Institute for Peace
Boeing Reveals New Hypersonic Aircraft Model Evolved From Previous Valkyrie Concept (Updated) – The Drive
Iranian-Backed Houthi Rebels Show Off Captured Saudi Weapons After Seizing Cargo Ship – The Drive
The Marines’ Amphibious Assault Vehicles Just Got Banned From Going In The Water Indefinitely – The Drive
USS Portland Uses Its Experimental Laser To Fry A Floating Target In The Middle East – The Drive
20 Questions With a U.S. Navy Vet Who Served on a Nuclear-Powered Attack Sub – Popular Mechanics
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