Let’s start things off today with a quick headline observation. In my introduction the other day, I said that I was listening to the podcast: A Slavish Devotion to Presence? – Net Assessment. The podcast is centered around the definition of ‘presence’ in regards to the Navy and what is sustainable. I only bring this back up because of this headline Russian Troops Deploy To Timbuktu In Mali After Withdrawal Of French Troops from Radio Free Europe. With this observation I am not arguing continuing presence everywhere or anywhere really, just pointing out that leaving areas may have consequences.
I have never really sought out articles written about battles that I was in, but I stumbled onto this: Five Days in Fallujah from The Atlantic on Twitter. (Hat tip to John Spencer) Our perspective is not really discussed in the article, I was with 5th Special Forces Group and we were advising the 36th Iraqi Commandos – the ICDC in the story, but it was definitely a walk down memory lane. To do this justice, I would probably need to dedicate an entire post to the topic.
Almost every major news source ran a variation of this: Kazakh Leader Rejects Talks, Tells Forces to ‘Shoot to Kill’ – The Moscow Times, headline today. The situation in Kazakhstan definitely deserves your attention but instead of me writing about it, I am just going to highlight a couple articles that I think are interesting because of specific observations.
Opinion: Russia Takes a Gamble in Kazakhstan – The Moscow Times
Kazakhstan in Crisis: It’s About the Country, Not Big Power Politics – RUSI
Russia Sent Electronic Warfare Systems And Armored Vehicles To Kazakhstan For Peacekeeping Mission – The Drive
And a quick mea culpa on something I missed yesterday in our discussion on Kazakhstan and its importance to Russia. (John Fuisz pointed this out on Linkedin – Thank you!) I was not aware that Russia runs all of their manned space missions out of the Baikonur Cosmodrome located in southern Kazakhstan. Needless to say, Kazakhstan is very important to Russia. From Wikipedia:
The Cosmodrome is the world’s first spaceport for orbital and human launches and the largest (in area) operational space launch facility.[1] All crewed Russian spaceflights are launched from Baikonur.[2]
The spaceport is in the desert steppe of Baikonur, about 200 kilometres (120 mi) east of the Aral Sea and north of the river Syr Darya. It is near the Tyuratam railway station and is about 90 metres (300 ft) above sea level. The spaceport is currently leased by the Kazakh Government to Russia until 2050 and is managed jointly by the Roscosmos State Corporation and the Russian Aerospace Forces.[citation needed] The shape of the area leased is an ellipse, measuring 90 kilometres (56 mi) east–west by 85 kilometres (53 mi) north–south, with the cosmodrome at the centre.
Just one more thing about Russia before we move on, this one from War on the Rocks: What Is Russia’s Logic for the Current Crisis? In my opinion, this is the best take on the current situation looking at the issue from the Russian perspective that I have read/listened to since Steven F. Cohen died. Maybe more articles like these will lead to a détente?
Another thing I would like to mention before we dive into Yemen, which actually was not in this morning’s reading, is a new initiative at the Modern War Institute: Introducing the Competition in Cyberspace Project.
Over the last couple days Yemen and Houthis were mentioned in several articles and I thought it deserved more attention than a gloss over in the headlines. I first began reading about the conflict several years ago via Daniel Larison through the American Conservative. (He is not a supporter of any U.S. involvement there.) For some background on the conflict, going beyond Wikipedia, The Council on Foreign Relations has a pretty good description which you can read here. For our purposes today, the following paragraph should work as a primer.
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when Houthi insurgents—Shiite rebels with links to Iran and a history of rising up against the Sunni government—took control of Yemen’s capital and largest city, Sana’a, demanding lower fuel prices and a new government. Following failed negotiations, the rebels seized the presidential palace in January 2015, leading President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his government to resign. Beginning in March 2015, a coalition of Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia launched a campaign of economic isolation and air strikes against the Houthi insurgents, with U.S. logistical and intelligence support.
Basically, it is a long running civil war where the Houthi insurgents have fought to a general stalemate despite the Sunni government having the backing of a wealthy benefactor in Saudi Arabia. The Houthi have been able to pull off some dramatic attacks all the while the country deals with an AQAP presence. Yes, I know I over simplified that but this is not the point of the article. The point of this article is – why are they in the news now? The first article that I’d like to highlight: The Iranian and Houthi War against Saudi Arabia – Center for Strategic and International Studies actually argues for greater U.S. involvement and begins this way:
The number of Houthi attacks against predominantly civilian targets in Saudi Arabia doubled over the first nine months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, according to new CSIS analysis. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force and Lebanese Hezbollah have played a critical role in providing weapons, technology, training, and other assistance to the Yemen-based Houthis. In response, the United States needs to provide Saudi Arabia additional aid to defend the country against stand-off attacks.
I am not taking a position on U.S. involvement here and am instead just putting the information out there so you can draw you own conclusions. The article continues:
Based on the data, this analysis has several primary findings. First, the Houthis are orchestrating an increasingly intense irregular warfare campaign against Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Gulf using sophisticated cruise and ballistic missiles, UAVs, and other stand-off weapons. These actions are occurring in the context of escalating violence in Yemen between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. The number of Houthi attacks per month doubled against Saudi Arabia and other targets over the first nine months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.5
The Center for Strategic and International Studies article goes way, way deeper with discussions on Objectives and Strategies, Military Capabilities, Cyber Capabilities, Maritime Anti-Access/Area Denial Capabilities, an Irregular Warfare Campaign and Recommendations. You really need to read the whole thing.
The Houthis are not only using standoff tactics either. According to The Drive, Iranian-Backed Houthi Rebels Show Off Captured Saudi Weapons After Seizing Cargo Ship, they have also been able to capture a Saudi Cargo ship.
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have released pictures and video footage of weapons, vehicles, small boats, and other military cargo onboard the landing craft-type cargo vessel Rwabee, which the group seized in the Red Sea…
The Houthis have launched various kinds of attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea, as well as the Gulf of Aden, including some involving explosive-laden unmanned suicide boats, since 2015…
However, actual Houthi seizures of ships have been far less common, This is the first known instance of such an operation since 2019, when the group briefly held a South Korean-flagged oil drilling rig and a Saudi Arabian-flagged tugboat. This appears to be possibly the only time the Houthis have taken control of a ship carrying military materiel belonging to the Saudi coalition, as well.
Needless to say, the Saudi’s want their ship back: Saudi coalition demands Houthis release UAE vessel seized in Red Sea – Al Monitor and have retaliated Yemen’s Houthis accuse Saudi-led coalition of diverting fuel ship – Al Monitor. Since we are linking to so many stories from Al Monitor we may as well stick with them in noting: Houthi forces shoot down alleged Emirati spy drone.
Houthi forces in Yemen shot down a drone allegedly used by the United Arab Emirates for espionage today.
“Our air forces, by the grace of God, were able to down a Chinese-made spy drone belonging to the Emirati air force,” Houthi military spokesperson Yehya Sarie said on Twitter.
To wrap this post up, I’d like to go to an article from Foreign Policy – Yemen’s Parallel War in Cyberspace. Apparently, the conflict is being waged in cyberspace also:
Yemen’s horrifying civil war is paralleled by a second conflict in the information space—in digital and traditional media and over control of the internet itself. Amid the world’s worst humanitarian crisis—one that has claimed as many as 377,000 lives and forced another 4 million to flee—is an infodemic of online misinformation, disinformation, hate speech, and extremism that is undermining what little trust remains after seven years of conflict. These digital harms are not only slowing efforts to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, but by deepening antagonisms among Yemenis, they are also eroding prospects for a durable peaceful settlement.
The Foreign Policy story is pay-walled so I don’t want to link to too much but I think you get the point. There is a lot going on in Yemen and each article is worth your time if you want to dive in a little deeper. If none of these do it for you, there are plenty of other headlines for you to peruse in Today’s Daily Dump!
Inspired by the Cognitive Raider Initiative, The Cognitive Warrior Project has put together a daily list of diverse articles that can easily be chosen from to play a part in developing a more mentally agile warfighter that embraces the adaptation required for tomorrow’s battlefield. Our intent is to create a space where you can choose one or two articles a day (about 10 minutes) instead of mindlessly scrolling social media.
As a reminder: The Cognitive Warrior Project is a private media site, and it is not affiliated in any way with Special Operation Forces, the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. None of the U.S. Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Coast Guard, DoD or Space Force have endorsed, supported, directed, or participated in the creation of the content at this site, or in the creation of the site itself. It’s just a media site that happens to cover the U.S Military, DoD and other National Intelligence Assets.
January 7/8, 2022
PLAN in motion: Chinese Navy’s Massive Ship Commissionings in 2021 – Naval News
Civil Affairs in the High North: How SOCOM’s Governance Specialists Can Become Arctic-Capable – Modern War Institute
On Space War – Modern War Institute
Introducing the Competition in Cyberspace Project – Modern War Institute
Podcast: Ambushed in Baghdad – The Spear
THE DANGER OF TECHNOLOGICAL SURPRISE: EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED OR SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES – War Room
#Reviewing: Battle Tested!: Gettysburg Leadership Lessons for 21st Century Leaders – The Strategy Bridge
Kazakhstan in Crisis: It’s About the Country, Not Big Power Politics – RUSI
A Strong Army Reserve Requires Senior Representation – RUSI
North Korean Proliferation Financing and Designated Non-Financial Businesses and Professions – RUSI
Watch: How to Make Alliances Succeed Across Multiple Dimensions of Power: Atlantic, Indo-Pacific, and Historical Lessons – NSI
Watch: Russian Grand Strategy: Reality and Rhetoric – NSI
What Is Russia’s Logic for the Current Crisis? – War on the Rocks
Reestablish the U.S. Military Assistance Advisory Group-Taiwan – War on the Rocks
When Software Bugs Go Nuclear: Testing a Digital Arsenal – War on the Rocks
Taiwan and Six Potential New Year’s Resolutions for the U.S.-Japanese Alliance – War on the Rocks
The Growing Rivalry Between America and China and the Future of Globalization – Texas National Security Review
The Art of Pacifism in the Conduct of War – The Forge
Field Report: Security in Tamaulipas Today: Simulated Peace – Small Wars Journal
1/6/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary – Small Wars Journal
Hamdok’s departure should prompt a rethink (Sudan) – Institute for Security Studies
Seminar 20 January: Double-edged sword: how technology can combat wildlife crime – Institute for Security Studies
Mali’s transitional government capitalises on festive lull – Institute for Security Studies
The Case for Cyber-Realism: Geopolitical Problems Don’t Have Technical Solutions – Foreign Affairs
What It Will Take to Deter Russia – Foreign Affairs
The Human Factor: How Robert Jervis Reshaped Our Understanding of International Politics – Foreign Affairs
Kazakh president gives shoot-to-kill order to put down uprising – Reuters
Japan and U.S. vow more defence cooperation to counter Chinese threat – Reuters
Anger as Cambodia’s Hun Sen meets Myanmar military leader – AP
Japan tycoon Maezawa returns from space with business dreams – AP
In pictures: Kazakhstan protests escalate – DW
Opinion: Kazakhstan unrest will curtail Moscow’s aggression – DW
Attacks on US in Iraq meant to send ‘harsh’ message — without spilling blood – Al Monitor
Electricity law connects Bedouin homes to Israel’s power grid – Al Monitor
Nubians demand repatriation during Sisi visit – Al Monitor
Huawei on a 5G roll in US ally Thailand – Asia Times
Japan looks West to guard against a rising China – Asia Times
US playing spoiler to China in Horn of Africa – Asia Times
US military presence abroad faces more opposition in 2022 – Asia Times
In Kazakhstan, Putin Again Seizes on Unrest to Try to Expand Influence – The New York Times
For Kazakhstan’s Autocratic Neighbors, Unrest Is A Warning And A Test – Radio Free Europe
British Warship Collided With Russian Submarine, UK Defense Ministry Confirms – Radio Free Europe
Statue Of Iranian Commander Soleimani Torched Hours After Being Unveiled – Radio Free Europe
Russian Troops Deploy To Timbuktu In Mali After Withdrawal Of French Troops – Radio Free Europe
Anti-coup activists continue protests in Sudan – Africa News
What is the Collective Security Treaty Organisation?: The Russian-led alliance is flexing its muscles in Kazakhstan – The Economist
A New Model Army for a Miserable Century – Wavell Room
Kazakh Leader Rejects Talks, Tells Forces to ‘Shoot to Kill’ – The Moscow Times
Opinion: Russia Takes a Gamble in Kazakhstan – The Moscow Times
McMaster, Afghanistan, and the Praetorian Mindset – Divergent Options
Russia Sent Electronic Warfare Systems And Armored Vehicles To Kazakhstan For Peacekeeping Mission – The Drive
Here’s The Story Behind That Viral Video Of Napoleonic Armor Smashed Through By A Cannonball – The Drive
Cyber Command Task Force Conducted Its First Offensive Operation As The Secretary Of Defense Watched – The Drive
The Quadrantid Meteor Shower Peaks This Week – Popular Mechanics
Watch How the U.S. Navy Hunts Down Russia and China’s Formidable Enemy Subs – Popular Mechanics
Astronomers Discover a Strange Galaxy Without Dark Matter – Wired
Rocket Report: SpaceX raises more cash, Buy your own New Glenn – Ars Technica
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