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Daily Dump: Russia and Ukraine, Russia and NATO, Russia and Kazakhstan and More– January 10, 2022

Daily Dump: Russia and Ukraine, Russia and NATO, Russia and Kazakhstan and More– January 10, 2022

Since this post is hitting the internet a day later than I had anticipated, we get a new introduction… the other one wasn’t that good anyway. I tried to be cute with a headline and I don’t think it would have aged well.

Lot’s of news centered around Russia yesterday. Whether it is Russia and NATO, the simmering conflict in Ukraine or recent uprising in Kazakhstan, news is coming from all directions. But before we dive into the headlines, I think we should start with looking at the conflict in the region from a Russian perspective by revisiting the War on the Rocks article, What Is Russia’s Logic for the Current Crisis?, from last week. If you didn’t read the article, you definitely should. It begins as follows:

“U.S.-Russian relations may no longer be central to world politics, the way they used to be during the Cold War, but when it comes to strategic stability and security in Europe and Eurasia, there is still no more important bilateral relationship in the world. President Vladimir Putin’s demands for “security guarantees” from the United States and NATO have caught many, including in Moscow, by surprise. The urgency with which Moscow seeks to have its proposals addressed — presented not as a “menu of options” to choose from but a “package” — has been even more stunning.”

Russia is seeking security guarantees in Ukraine and to a lesser extent Georgia (and now Kazakhstan). That should not be a surprise to anyone but I think understates the importance of Ukraine to Russia. For that we will turn to this Wavell Room Piece: NATO, Diplomacy, and the Ukraine Crisis, which references Zbigniew Brzezinski:

“…Russia without Ukraine ceases to be an empire. The problem is that in highlighting Ukraine’s strategic importance Brzezinski also identified the stakes. Ukraine was the one thing Russia was never going to let go.”

And then back to the War on the Rocks article:

“Since the end of the 1990s, NATO has seen five waves of enlargement eastward. Each wave triggered noise from Moscow, but it was the possibility of Ukraine and Georgia’s accession to NATO that Russia feared most and set as the red line.”

From the Russian perspective, the idea that NATO is a ‘defensive’ alliance sort of rings hollow. So, where do we currently stand? According to the PBS News Hour – U.S. and NATO reject Russian demand that alliance not admit new members.

“The United States and NATO on Friday roundly rejected Russian demands that the alliance not admit new members amid growing concerns that Russia may invade Ukraine, which aspires to join the alliance.”

I get not making such a statement publicly so early in a negotiation. But if Ukraine joining NATO truly means war with Russia; is that a price they are willing to pay? Or, is neutrality for Ukraine even a realistic option anymore? This AP article is a decent EXPLAINER: Main issues at Russia-US security talks, but for the more likely prospects for Ukraine and the purposes of this discussion, we will go back to the very good Wavell Room piece and Brzezinski (which you really should read):

“For Ukraine, he instead proposed Finlandization – as did Henry Kissinger. Neither was parroting Kremlin talking points. They were recognizing the limitations of the situation and proffering the best outcome they could envision for Kyiv.

That said, Finland during the Cold War is often viewed through rose-colored glasses. “Neutrality” was a fig leaf for vassalage to Moscow. Some Ukrainians understandably recoil at the model. “Finlandization” was not that different than what ousted President Viktor Yanukovych pursued in 2013 when he declared a policy of non-alignment and abrogated Ukraine’s association agreement with the European Union.”

For a solution to the Ukraine problem, they propose The Austrian model which you can read more about at The National Interest but here is the relevant section that pertains to our conversation:

 …the fate of Austria, which eventually concluded with Austria’s declaration of “perpetual neutrality,” the departure of all Soviet and Allied military forces from Austrian soil in 1955, and the ratification of the Austrian Independence Treaty in the same year. Likewise, neutrality also may be Ukraine’s most viable option. In fact, the now discredited Viktor Yanukovich stated in his inauguration 2010 “challenges that the international community face mean we have to join together in a larger format. We are ready to participate in this process as a European, non-aligned state.”[1] Indeed in the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine, passed on July 1, 1990, it says that Ukraine has the “intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs and adheres to three nuclear free principles…”[2] To this date, however, no further steps have been taken towards Ukrainian neutrality.

As for what will actually happen in regards to Ukraine and NATO? We will have to wait and see what comes of the negotiations but I don’t think anything really concrete will come of them on this first round. Besides, according to The Economist, Russia’s menacing of Ukraine is unlikely to induce NATO to retreat.

On to Kazakhstan for a quick update. Over the weekend the AP reported Nearly 8,000 detained in Kazakhstan amid unrest and according to DW Kazakhstan: Putin says Russia will not allow revolutions. Whether this is disinformation or reality doesn’t really matter for the central players, Putin and the President of Kazakhstan claim (from DW):

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev claims Islamists had sought to launch a coup under the guise of protest. The country had been targeted by “international terrorism,” according to Vladimir Putin…

“The measures taken by the CSTO made it clear that we would not let anyone destabilize the situation at our home and implement so-called color revolution scenarios,” Putin said, referring to several revolutions in post-Soviet countries over the past few decades.

There is so much more in yesterday’s headlines about the situation in Kazakhstan and honestly, I haven’t even checked today’s! We are going to leave you with one last article that you may have missed and for that we go to The Moscow Times, Kazakhstan Detains Ex-Security Chief on Suspicion of Treason.

The former head of Kazakhstan’s domestic security agency has been detained on suspicion of treason, the agency said Saturday, after he was fired amid unprecedented unrest.

The detention of Karim Masimov, a former prime minister and longtime ally of Kazakhstan’s ex-leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, was the first major move against a top official in the biggest crisis the ex-Soviet Central Asian republic has faced in years.

It doesn’t look good for Karim Masimov. I think that this will be an interesting story to follow over the coming days. If you are not into the whole Russia thing, there are still plenty of other articles that should be able to grab your attention in Today’s (which is actually yesterday’s) Daily Dump!

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January 10, 2022

TEACHING TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION, AND GREAT POWER COMPETITION AT STANFORD, PART 5: LESSONS LEARNED – Modern War Institute

In the Firing Line: Finland, Sweden, NATO and European Security – RUSI

Watch: Cyber Risks in Nuclear Escalation Scenarios – NSI

Watch: Cognitive Defense Against Massive Information Threats—Our Near Futures – NSI

U.S. and NATO reject Russian demand that alliance not admit new members – PBS News Hour

What Prevention and Treatment of Substance Dependence Can Tell Us About Addressing Violent Extremism – RAND

Podcast: Ep. 58 — The Year in Review – Generation Jihad

Podcast: THE TEXTURE OF WAR IN AFGHANISTAN’S PECH VALLEY: PART 1 – Horns of Dilemma

Podcast: A HEAVY PRICE TO PAY? – Net Assessment

SPIKING THE PROBLEM: DEVELOPING A RESILIENT POSTURE IN THE INDO-PACIFIC WITH PASSIVE DEFENSES – War on the Rocks

WINGED LUDDITES: AVIATORS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARRIER AVIATION – War on the Rocks

1/10/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary – Small Wars Journal

Online Event: CSIS Australia Chair Launch Event – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Saudi Arabia’s Hydrogen Industrial Strategy – Center for Strategic and International Studies

As the AU turns 20, it must speak with one voice – Institute for Security Studies

Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing: To Deter a Ukraine Invasion, Washington’s Threats Need to Be Tougher – Foreign Affairs

Democracy Talk Is Cheap: Concrete Action Is the Only Way Biden Can Turn Back the Illiberal Tide – Foreign Affairs

Putin claims victory in defending Kazakhstan from revolt – Reuters

U.S. and Russian negotiators face off in Geneva over Ukraine – Reuters

Iran calls for release of Afghan funds during Taliban envoy’s visit – Reuters

EXPLAINER: Main issues at Russia-US security talks – AP

Nearly 8,000 detained in Kazakhstan amid unrest – AP

Opinion: Putin gets his way as West scrambles – DW

Kazakhstan: Putin says Russia will not allow revolutions – DW

New year brings no hope of resolution to Yemen conflict – Al Monitor

Kazakhstan adds to Putin’s regional headaches – Asia Times

US, Japan to crank up cooperation vis-a-vis China – Asia Times

China’s nuke carrier coup de grace in Taiwan Strait – Asia Times

Belt & Road encircles Latin America and the Caribbean – Asia Times

Russia following Ukraine playbook in Kazakhstan – Asia times

Live Updates: Russia Tells U.S. It Has No Plans to Invade Ukraine – The New York Times

Russian Troops Will Stay to Finish Job in Kazakhstan, Putin Says – The New York Times

Russia Warns That U.S. Doesn’t Understand Its Goals on Ukraine – The New York Times

‘Gross Misuse’: UN Helmets Worn By Kazakh Troops During Crackdown – Radio Free Europe

Iran Says Only 12 Asiatic Cheetahs Left In Country – Radio Free Europe

Ruling military regime in Mali condemns and retaliates against ECOWAS sanctions – Africa News

Ethiopia: footage of drone deadly strike emerges – Africa News

America’s Asia Strategy Has Reached a Dead End – Foreign Policy

3 Big Things to Know About the Russian-Led Alliance Intervening in Kazakhstan – Foreign Policy

The Human Rights vs. National Security Dilemma Is a Fallacy – Foreign Policy

Russia’s menacing of Ukraine is unlikely to induce NATO to retreat – The Economist

China’s Tech Crackdown: A Year-in-Review – Lawfare

NATO, Diplomacy, and the Ukraine Crisis – Wavell Room

Kazakhstan Detains Ex-Security Chief on Suspicion of Treason – The Moscow Times

As Putin Aims to Re-Divide Europe, Lessons from the Past Can Guide a Response – Just Security

What to Make of Kazakhstan’s Seemingly Sudden Unrest – The United States Institute of Peace

CES 2022 Highlights: 83 Glimpses of the Future From Tech’s Big Show – Wired

All hail the Ariane 5 rocket, which doubled the Webb telescope’s lifetime – Ars Technica

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