It’s been a minute since I have posted. I, not unlike some others I suspect, have been getting caught up in the news cycle more than normal and have let this side project of writing slide a little. But this stops today!
In my obsessive doom scrolling of X, formerly known as Twitter, a couple stories about the Chinese Navy and recent live fire exercises have really caught my attention. I was not sure how to frame an actual article about it until I saw this post on X:
Naval presence is political messaging in its rawest forms.
Sending warships to another nation’s backyard says, “We can reach you.”
A nation shows its hard power projection by making others feel its presence. This is an assertion of blue-water naval capability.
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The… https://t.co/64A1vFCLzq pic.twitter.com/Yhaf4PrQrZ
— People’s Art of War 人民兵法 (@pplsartofwar) February 21, 2025
The money quote:
“Naval presence is political messaging in its rawest forms. Sending warships to another nation’s backyard says, “We can reach you.”
The post continues:
“The live-fire exercise threats shows Australia that Chinese military presence is not just the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait. This move is meant to erode Australia’s sense of strategic distance.”
The exercise has caused disruption:
China’s “unannounced” live fire drill in the Tasman Sea, within Australian EEZ, has disrupted civil aviation industry the region.
The motive of this aggressive drill is to let Australia & New Zealand accept China’s dominance in this region. 1/3 @DrewPavlou @ElbridgeColby pic.twitter.com/lnEk3YbpH7
— Michael Turner (@Michael71T) February 22, 2025
This seems like a pretty big deal, so I wondered if China has done this before. So, I asked Google and our local generative AI tool.
According to Reuters, there was actually two live fire exercises conducted in the Pacific, but they do not mention previous exercises. They state:
“New Zealand said the Chinese navy conducted a live-fire exercise in international waters near the Pacific nation on Saturday, a day after it held a similar drill between Australia and New Zealand that forced airlines to divert flights.”
Interestingly this is the response from AI when I asked the question, “Has China conducted live exercises near Australia?”:
It’s important to be cautious about claiming definitive events like military exercises without verified information. While there have been instances of Chinese military activity in the Indo-Pacific region that have caused concern for Australia, there haven’t been confirmed reports of live-fire exercises conducted by China specifically near Australian territory.
Here’s what we know:
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- China’s military presence in the region is growing: This includes increased naval activity in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, areas that are strategically important to Australia.
- Australia expresses concerns: The Australian government has expressed concerns over China’s growing military assertiveness in the region and has increased its own defense capabilities in response.
- No confirmed reports of live-fire exercises near Australia: While there have been reports of Chinese military exercises in the South China Sea and other parts of the Indo-Pacific, there haven’t been confirmed reports of such exercises in close proximity to Australia.
It’s crucial to rely on verified information from reputable sources when discussing sensitive topics like military activity. News outlets and government sources from multiple countries are usually good places to start for unbiased information.
If you’re interested in learning more about China’s military activities in the Indo-Pacific region and Australia’s response, I recommend looking at reports from organizations like the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and government defense publications from Australia and other countries in the region.
What does Grok say when I ask, “Summarize the recent Chinese activity near Australia:”
“As of February 22, 2025, recent Chinese military activity near Australia has heightened tensions in the region. In mid-February, three Chinese naval vessels—a frigate (Hengyang), a cruiser (Zunyi), and a supply tanker (Weishanhu)—were observed operating in Australia’s exclusive economic zone, initially spotted in the Coral Sea off Queensland’s northeast coast after transiting through Southeast Asia and the Torres Strait. These ships, part of China’s Southern Theatre Command, proceeded south along Australia’s east coast, coming as close as 150 nautical miles to Sydney before positioning approximately 340 nautical miles east of New South Wales by February 21.
“China’s military activities near Australia have increased in frequency and assertiveness since around 2016, correlating with its broader strategic rivalry with the U.S. and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. The AUKUS pact (announced in 2021), which enhances Australia’s naval capabilities with nuclear-powered submarines, and Australia’s role in the Quad (with the U.S., India, and Japan) have likely contributed to Beijing’s interest in projecting power closer to Australian waters. While the February 2025 activities—naval transit, a Tasman Sea exercise, and an aircraft incident—are not entirely new, their concentration within a short timeframe and proximity to Australia’s eastern seaboard mark an escalation in visibility and perceived provocation.
So, is this a big deal? I think it is and is something we should keep an eye on. Particularly since the perceived elevated importance of the Quad. From the Diplomat:
“One of the Trump administration’s first foreign policy acts, less than a day after the inauguration, was convening the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (FMM) on January 21. The FMM involved wide-ranging discussions addressing different dimensions of the Indo-Pacific, culminating with a consensus on the salience of “thinking bigger,”and a concise joint statement. The joint statement, relatively shorter than each of its precedents, entailed changes on at least three counts.